Handing over F-16s to Ukraine will not automatically give Kyiv air superiority over Russian forces, experts have said, as Kyiv appears to be closer to securing advanced fighter jets from its Western allies.
Ukrainian forces would first need to push back against Russian forces and “erode their ground-based air defense,” former Royal Air Force Air Marshal Greg Bagwell told Newsweek.
Ukraine has long called for deliveries of advanced, Western-made fighter jets to upgrade its aging, Soviet-era fleet. Experts have suggested that the U.S.-made F-16 fourth-generation jet would be the best choice for Ukraine’s armed forces, and would be a significant upgrade for its air force.
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However, some analysts say that providing F-16s, which no nation has yet committed to doing, is not a silver bullet for Ukraine’s air force. There are several obstacles to overcome before F-16s can be successfully used, and the planes by themselves are not enough to dominate airspace.
They would need properly trained ground crews and pilots, sufficient air-defense systems to protect their bases and an adequate supply of missiles.
Ukraine should look to carve out “local superiority,” Bagwell argued, and “create pockets of air superiority for a finite period so they can dominate for a few hours or even days.”
Earlier this month, the British Defense Ministry said it was supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadows, giving Kyiv longer-range strike capabilities. Russia’s Defense Ministry has since said it has intercepted several of the cruise missiles.
The key for Ukraine is also to prevent Russia from establishing its own air superiority, Bagwell said.
From early in the war, Western analysts have said Russia failed to dominate airspace above Ukraine. In November 2022, the British Defense Ministry said Russia’s continued lack of air superiority was likely down to factors such as the loss of its experienced crews, poor training and the risks of carrying out operations against Ukrainian air defenses.
It is hard to tell what the impact of F-16s would be on the air war and who could establish air superiority, said David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King’s College London, U.K.
However, F-16s in Ukrainian hands increases Kyiv’s chances of securing a “favorable air situation” at key points, “allowing for greater levels of air support to their own forces, while increasing the risk to Russian troops.” However, there are multiple factors in play, Jordan said to Newsweek, meaning it is difficult to predict just how the balance would tip.
While no F-16s have been offered so far, several countries—including the U.K. and the U.S.—have pledged to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets.
“There’s still some work to be done,” a senior official from President Joe Biden’s administration said during a background press briefing over the weekend. “But the muscle movements are in place, and the discussions are happening,” they added.
Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment via email.