West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is trailing GOP challenger Governor Jim Justice by 22 points in a new poll, a troubling sign for Democrats hoping to keep control of the Senate in next year’s elections.
Manchin, a centrist Democrat first elected in 2010, has long defied West Virginia’s conservative lean to win elections in the state, which former President Donald Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. Manchin has embraced more moderate positions on social issues such as abortion and has been willing to buck the party from time to time, boosting his popularity while enraging more liberal Democrats.
But the new poll signals that Manchin is facing an uphill battle against Justice, a popular governor who announced his Senate campaign last month.
An East Carolina University poll of 957 registered voters found Justice leading by 22 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup. Fifty-four percent of voters said they planned to back Justice, while 32 percent said they were going to vote for Manchin.
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Another one percent of registered voters said they would vote for some other candidate, and 20 percent remained undecided, according to the poll.
Manchin has long been viewed as the most vulnerable senator up for reelection from either party in 2024. He was last elected in 2018, a “blue wave” election in which Democrats had a turnout advantage of 3.6 percent across the U.S. But 2024 is a presidential year, so Democrats are not expected to have such an edge.
Justice, viewed as the front-runner to win the Republican primary, led Representative Alex Mooney by 41 points in the poll. Fifty-three percent of registered voters said they would vote for Justice, while only 12 percent said they supported Mooney.
However, the race would become more competitive if Mooney secures the Republican nomination, according to the poll. Manchin trailed Mooney by just a single percentage point in that potential matchup.
Manchin has not said whether or not he plans to run for reelection and has not ruled out the possibility that he could challenge President Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Newsweek reached out to Manchin’s camp for comment.
Control of Senate Could Flip
The poll is not good news for Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate after the 2024 elections. Currently, Democrats hold 51 seats. Control of the Senate would likely be in play in any year, given the slim majority, but experts view the 2024 map as particularly troubling for Democrats.
Democrats are being forced to defend seats in the conservative-leaning states of West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, all of which Republicans are expected to carry in the 2024 presidential election. That means incumbent Senators Manchin, Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester would need to outperform the Democratic presidential nominee substantially to win reelection—fueling GOP optimism about their odds to regain Senate control.
Meanwhile, Democrats have few opportunities to pick up seats. Texas Senator Ted Cruz is viewed as the most vulnerable Republican but is still seen as favored. Democrats are hoping to pull an upset in either Texas, or other Republican-leaning states such as Florida or Missouri, to expand their advantage.