I’ll have to see a bit more. But I believe we’re seeing signs that Kevin McCarthy has essentially outmaneuvered the core freak brigade in the Freedom Caucus – about 20 or so members. They’re all saying it’s a terrible deal. But they’re not saying more than that. As we noted over the weekend McCarthy has two critical members of that group on his team – Greene and Jordan.
It’s true that any of them can force a vote on his Speakership at any moment. Then four can withhold their votes and deprive him of office. But no one else wants this job. And no one else in the caucus can get a majority vote. Quite a lot of membership are fed up with the grandstanding and likely appreciate McCarthy getting them through this drama in one piece.
Could they do it? Sure. But given what I said above, McCarthy can see his ouster and say, “Okay, guys, I’m going to the beach. Give me a call when you’ve figured out you have to elect me all over again.”
I don’t want to paint too rosy a picture for McCarthy. It all depends on what members start hearing in their districts. It could change quickly if Trump starts calling this a betrayal. But until those things happen not only might McCarthy survive this he might come out of it strengthened against those folks.