Kremlin likely pitting allies against one another in Ukraine: ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Thursday said recent statements from Chechen officials that are critical of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin could be an effort by the Kremlin to undermine the mercenary boss.

Prigozhin emerged in the later months of 2022 as a major factor in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. After the formal Russian military suffered a string of high-profile battlefield defeats, Prighozhin’s Wagner mercenaries—which included a large number of prison recruits—began to turn the tide of the war for Russia.

After claiming victory in the city of Soledar, Wagner began focusing its efforts on Bakhmut, though Prigozhin has threatened to pull out of the city multiple times after saying Moscow is not providing him with sufficient ammunition.

In an assessment of the war in Ukraine, the ISW, a U.S.-based think tank, wrote that Chechen commanders and officials “launched a concerted attack” on Prigozhin this week. It noted that the public denunciations began after Prigozhin said on Wednesday that he had been aware of Chechen military forces taking new positions in Ukraine and that he didn’t know these troops would be concentrating their operations on settlements, as opposed to all of the Donetsk region.

Prigozhin has become known for not holding back in his verbal assaults on Russian military officials, especially Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. However, the ISW wrote that his Wednesday comments about the Chechen military “appeared relatively neutral compared with his more inflammatory statements and did not directly criticize Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov or his forces.”

Among the officials who spoke out against Prigozhin was Chechen member of the Russian State Duma Adam Delimkhanov, who addressed the Wagner founder in an angry video posted to his Telegram channel.

“If you don’t understand, then you can contact us and tell us the place and the time. We will explain to you what you don’t understand,” Delimkhanov said. “You have become a blogger who screams and shouts off to the whole world about all the problems. Stop shouting, yelling and screaming.”

Apti Alaudinov, a commander of Chechen special forces in Ukraine, also hit out at Prigozhin, by stating that Wagner had been given more supplies from Russia than his troops. Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov added to the attacks on Prigozhin by saying his protests about the Russian military would have resulted in execution if they had been made during World War II.

One notable person who has remained silent is Kadyrov, who has maintained a cordial public relationship with Prigozhin, even saluting the Wagner Group when he announced last month that Chechens would fill in the gap for Prigozhin in Bakhmut.

Nonetheless, the ISW wrote that “Chechen attacks on Prigozhin’s character may be a part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin as his forces withdraw from the frontlines.”

“Prigozhin may be finding himself in a more vulnerable position than when the Kremlin relied on his forces to capture Bakhmut and has likely been attempting to remain relevant in the information space by conducting press conferences across Russia,” the think tank wrote.

The ISW added that Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander who has been a vocal critic of how Russia has conducted the Ukraine war, has “speculated that Kadyrov has likely calculated the value in maintaining Prigozhin as an ally and concluded that Prigozhin cannot offer him any significant benefits.”

Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek on Friday that he feels “Chechen criticism of Prigozhin may not be something that needs to be orchestrated or even encouraged by the Kremlin.”

“Chechen leader Kadyrov and various Chechen commanders may sense that Prigozhin has annoyed the Kremlin, and so they see an opportunity to ‘kick him while he’s down,'” Katz wrote in an email. “Putin, like many dictators, likes to play his supporters against each other to prevent them from ever working together against him. Putin, then, may be happy to see Chechen criticism of Prigozhin.”

Even still, Katz said it’s not certain Putin is ready to completely sever ties with Prigozhin.

“Otherwise, Putin would have Prigozhin replaced as head of Wagner. From Putin’s viewpoint, the squabbling between Prigozhin and the Defense Ministry—and Prigozhin and the Chechens—has the positive result of encouraging them all to go to greater efforts to show Putin how effective they each are. And so far, it seems to be working,” he said.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.