Majority of Iowa caucusgoers say Trump conviction wouldn’t affect their support

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More than 6-in-10 likely Republican caucusgoers — 61% — say that it doesn’t matter to their support if former President Donald Trump is convicted of a crime before the general election, according to the latest numbers from the new NBC News/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa.

By comparison, 19% of likely Iowa caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would make it more likely that they’d back Trump, while 18% say it would make them less likely to support the former president in the general election.

As with the other findings from the Iowa poll, the likely caucusgoers backing former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley — half of whom are independents and crossover Democrats — have far different perceptions about Trump and his legal challenges than other GOP caucusgoers.

Among Haley’s supporters, 56% say a possible conviction of Trump doesn’t matter to their Nov. 2024 vote choice, but 41% say it would make them less likely to back Trump.

By comparison, 70% of DeSantis supporters say it wouldn’t matter to them if Trump was convicted, versus 26% who say it will make them less likely to support the former president.

And among Trump’s supporters, 58% say a conviction wouldn’t matter — and an additional 35% say a conviction would make them more likely to support their favored candidate.

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa was conducted Jan. 7-12 of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.7 percentage points. 

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