The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) on Wednesday said that since the start of May, Russia has been “reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own war aims.”
The MoD’s intelligence update came a day after Russian officials reported multiple drones had attacked Moscow, which resulted in damage to residential buildings but no known casualties. The Kremlin blamed Ukraine for the attack, but Kyiv denied responsibility.
Meanwhile, Russia has not been able to declare a definitive victory in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, despite sinking extensive resources into the months-long conflict and sustaining high rates of casualties. Ukraine has also made multiple strikes in recent weeks on Russian sites containing ammunition and supplies that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops require for the war he launched on Ukraine more than 15 months ago.
In its estimation, the British defense ministry said that over the course of May, “Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict.”
MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
“During May 2023, Russia has launched 20 nights of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine,” the U.K. MoD wrote in its update, which was posted on Twitter. “Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralizing Ukraine’s improved air defenses and destroying Ukrainian counter-attack forces.”
As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in its Tuesday assessment of the Ukraine war, Russia was particularly aggressive in launching drone attacks against Kyiv over the course of the past weekend. However, the Ukrainian General Staff reported its air defenses shot down 29 of 31 drones Russian launched against Kyiv during the weekend strikes.
According to the MoD, one factor that has affected Russia’s ability to successfully attack Ukraine is that it has been forced to respond to Russian dissidents, who have claimed responsibility for strikes in western regions—such as Belgorod—inside Russia. The MoD wrote Russia has been forced to redeploy security forces to react to these partisan attacks.”
Another possible factor working against Putin’s forces is that they could be preparing for the highly anticipated counteroffensive that Ukraine is expected to launch. Though this military operation was originally forecasted to begin in the spring, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has since said it may be delayed while his military awaits additional weapons and supplies from its Western allies.
“Operationally, Russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counter-attack will occur,” the MoD wrote.
The defense ministry added: “However, this has probably been undermined by uncommitted forces instead being sent to fill gaps in the front line around Bakhmut.”
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.