As Ukraine inches closer to promises of F-16s, it still has three key problems to overcome before it is ready for Western fighter jets to take the fight to the Russian air force, experts told Newsweek.
The issues—the length of time it will take to train Ukrainian personnel involved with F-16s, getting the right infrastructure into place, and navigating the political landscape—need to be tackled before Ukraine can fly the advanced warplanes, analysts said.
Fighter jets have previously been a red line for Kyiv’s Western backers. Ukraine has repeatedly called for NATO-standard aircraft to replace its aging Soviet fleet under what it has termed a “coalition of fighter jets.”
But Ukraine is yet to receive any firm promise of F-16 jets, which experts have identified as the most appropriate choice of fighter aircraft for Kyiv’s pilots. Although unlikely to receive the most recent versions of the jets, Ukraine’s air force would be significantly upgraded by any package of military aid containing F-16s.
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Several of Kyiv’s allies in the war that began with Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, have committed to training Ukrainian pilots, including the U.S. and the U.K. The White House had also indicated it would not block the transfer of F-16s from other nations to Ukraine, CNN reported on Friday.
However, experts have always warned of stumbling blocks that have not disappeared as the international community more seriously considers providing the F-16s. Although not insurmountable problems, they say, Ukraine is unlikely to see the U.S.-made jets overhead anytime soon.
“There’s still some work to be done,” a senior Biden administration official said during a background press briefing over the weekend. “But the muscle movements are in place, and the discussions are happening,” they added.
‘Months, Not weeks,’ for Training
Although many nations have offered to train Ukrainian pilots, it will take time to come to fruition.
“Training even experienced pilots on a new aircraft is measured in months, not weeks,” Retired Air Commodore Andrew Curtis, formerly of the British Royal Air Force, told Newsweek, adding that the same principle applies to Ukrainian ground crews.
It is hard to work out whether, or how much, training of Ukrainian air force crews has already happened, David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King’s College London, U.K., told Newsweek.
In late February, Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy, suggested that the “most expeditious” timeline for training and delivery of F-16s to Ukraine would be about 18 months.
But Josep Borrell, the European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, on Tuesday signaled that Ukrainian pilots had begun training on F-16s in “several countries.”
“Poland is ready to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft,” Warsaw’s Defense Ministry told Newsweek in a statement, but said that “such training has not yet started.”
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak “proposed that such training should be included in the EU training mission conducted in Poland,” the ministry said, adding that “the number of trained pilots will depend on the capabilities of Poland, which, as a country on NATO’s eastern flank, has obligations, e.g. towards the Baltic states.”
Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, said on Tuesday that the “process of preparing people to start this training is still ongoing,” according to Ukrainian media.
“There are no pilots in the countries yet,” he added.
Although some experts said this is likely to be shorter, particularly with the demands of wartime, F-16s would not make it to Ukraine for Kyiv’s long-expected spring counteroffensive.
There is also the question of how Ukrainian pilots go through the training programs.
“The challenge for Ukraine is they’re still fighting in their existing aircraft,” former British Royal Air Force Senior Commander and Air Marshal Greg Bagwell added.
Ukrainian pilots might be pulled from the frontlines to train on F-16s, but could then go back after completing their training and return to flying Soviet-era jets while waiting for F-16s, he suggested.
“Lots of challenges, lots of questions,” Bagwell told Newsweek.
But should Ukraine try to use F-16s in the air war before its air force is ready would “likely result in losses that cannot be afforded,” Curtis said. “The tension between early use and competent use will be exceedingly difficult to manage.”
F-16 Bases to Be ‘Prime Target’
“The tactical problems with operating the F-16s haven’t gone away,” Curtis said.
Experts previously told Newsweek that F-16s are a fundamental move away from Ukraine’s Soviet air infrastructure, meaning it’s not just new training that comes with the jets but the logistics like new supply chains, maintenance procedures and infrastructure.
F-16s need smooth runways and often centralized bases to operate from—unlike the dispersed airfields and makeshift runways the Soviet-era aircraft in Ukraine’s current fleet are able to use.
These locations could then become a “prime target” for Russian strikes, former British military officer Frank Ledwidge told Newsweek. That could mean operating from bases well-known to Russian forces, which “makes them extremely vulnerable to attack on the ground,” Curtis said.
Defending these bases then draws away Ukraine’s missile systems from other areas of the front line, experts said, leading to hard choices about where to place the air defense systems.
But the need for smooth runways offers another potential pitfall, Justin Bronk, senior research fellow in airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, U.K., told Newsweek in March. F-16s, compared to jets more suited to uneven runways, would “suffer more in terms of wear and tear and potential accidents from being operated from rough surfaces compared to other jets,” he said.
However, the preparation of air bases, although time-consuming, might already be underway, Jordan said.
Political Obstacles
There has always been a political facet to providing military aid to Ukraine. F-16s were previously a red line for Kyiv’s Western backers and for NATO, and Russia has labeled the possibility of the U.S. jets ending up in Ukrainian hands an escalation.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko hit back at the possibility of Ukraine receiving F-16s on Saturday, saying this would carry “enormous risks” for Western countries involved, according to Russian state media.
“Ukraine has the right of self-defense,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday. “We will help Ukraine to uphold that right,” he said. “That doesn’t make NATO and NATO allies a party to the conflict.”
“The potential ramping up of tension between Russia and the West cannot be ignored,” Curtis said. “It would be tempting for countries like Poland to offer logistic and technical support, even potentially operating Ukrainian F-16s from Polish military airfields. However, the geopolitical implications of such decisions would be significant.”
Despite the obstacles, experts increasingly believe that announcements of F-16s for Ukraine are on the horizon. If the war in Ukraine ends in the near future, Bagwell said, Ukraine will still need an air force to defend its borders with Russia.
With the Soviet-era jets needing replacing, experts said, eyes are looking toward an overhaul of Ukraine’s air force to keep their defenses viable, and potentially line up Kyiv for NATO integration.