We have a new leader in the race for the Lombardi Trophy, at least according to the oddsmakers.
Odds from four major sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM) on Thursday morning show San Francisco’s median odds moved to +625, putting them 25 points ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs for the top spot to win the NFL’s Super Bowl LVIII on February 11, 2024. The 49ers (2-0) cemented their spot with road win against division rival Los Angeles Rams.
Chiefs vs. 49ers would be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, won 31-20 by Kansas City on February 2, 2020, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The Eagles (+750) maintained their position in third place while Dallas jumped from +1100 to +775, leapfrogging the Buffalo Bills who remained at +1000 for the second straight week. Wins for the Ravens (+1250) and Dolphins (+1300) helped solidify their rankings, as well.
Biggest jumps in Super Bowl odds after Week 2
The biggest positive change for the week belongs to Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with Tomlin’s reputation as one of the league’s best coaches, the Steelers came into the season at +5000 to win the whole thing. After their Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers, they dropped further to +6800. But after a narrow win that featured four takeaways, two 50-plus-yard field goals and two defensive touchdowns, the Steelers bounced back, jumping up to +4250.
Yet problems remain in Pittsburgh, largely on offense. The Steelers rank last in first downs, and even with their defense putting points on the board, they’re among the lowest scoring teams in the league. Pro Bowl running back Najee Harris has just 16 carries and no touchdowns over the first two games.
Part of the jump likely has to do with the rest of their division. The Browns fell behind them in the standings following Monday’s game in which they lost one of the league’s best rushers, Nick Chubb, to a knee injury. The Bengals fell to 0-2 with QB Joe Burrow reaggravating a calf injury that kept him out of the bulk of training camp.
The Ravens still stand tall, ahead of them in the standings (2-0) and in the Super Bowl odds (+1250), nearly 30 percent better than last week’s number. Injuries are becoming a concern in Baltimore, but as long as former MVP Lamar Jackson is collecting wins, expect them to stay well ahead of Tomlin’s squad.
The other big jump this week came from the Tennessee Titans (+6800). The Titans are 1-1 after a tough game against an expected playoff team, raising their odds more than 30 percent. Still nowhere close to a favorite but one to watch.
Biggest drops in Super Bowl odds after Week 2
The low tended to get lower this week, with teams like the Cardinals, Texans, Bears and Panthers seeing their odds sink from their already long-shot positions.
The Browns (+2900) and Bengals (+1950) fell 40 percent or more from a week ago due to losses and injuries. The Bengals’ next three weeks feature teams with a total of just two wins, giving them an opportunity to get their season back on track. Meanwhile, the Browns have three consecutive home games coming up but face both the Ravens and 49ers during that time.
Outside of Kansas City, the AFC West has had a rough two weeks. The Los Angeles Chargers (+3000) saw a significant drop following their road loss to Tennessee. L.A. has dropped four straight going back to Week 18 of 2022 by a combined nine points.
The Las Vegas Raiders didn’t start the season as much of a favorite but have dropped even further to +10000. Sportsbooks seemed to have some faith in Sean Payton’s ability to get Russell Wilson and the Broncos back to the team’s former glory, but that faith has quickly evaporated. Denver is down nearly 90 percent from their preseason +4500.