2024 Daytona 500 odds, predictions, start time: Model shares surprising NASCAR picks, leaderboard

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The new NASCAR Cup Series season will begin on Sunday with the 2024 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. The 2.5-mile superspeedway is the most iconic track in all of stock car racing and been the host to the Daytona 500 since 1959. Richard Petty’s seven victories at the Daytona 500 are a record, but Denny Hamlin could move into a tie for second all-time with Cale Yarborough with a fourth victory.

Hamlin won “The Great American Race” in 2016, 2019 and 2020 and is one of six co-favorites in the 2024 Daytona 500 odds at 12-1. He’s joined by Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher at the top of the 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds board. The green flag will drop at 2:30 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.  

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Daytona 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard.

Top 2024 Daytona 500 predictions

For the 2024 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he’s a 16-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch is a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and a 63-time winner in NASCAR’s top series and a Daytona 500 win is the only thing missing from his hall-of-fame resume.

Busch won the 2008 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona and was the runner-up at the 2019 Daytona 500. He’s led at least five laps in nine of his last 10 starts at Daytona International Speedway and also has Truck Series and Xfinity Series wins at Daytona in his career. He’s coming off a three-win season in his first season with Richard Childress Racing and should be a serious factor in 2024.

Another massive shocker: Chris Buescher, one of the Vegas co-favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup. A rogue winner at Pocono in 2016, Buescher broke back through for his second victory at Bristol in 2022 and then had a three-win season in 2023 where he finished seventh in the NASCAR standings.

That included a win at the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 but he only led two laps in that race and he’s failed to finish seven of his 16 career starts at Daytona. He’s also managed five top-five finishes at Daytona but he’ll be treated differently in the NASCAR Cup Series now that he’s established himself as a title contender and the model is fading his co-favorite status. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Daytona odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard, all from the model that has called 15 winners since 2021.

2024 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Daytona picks at SportsLine

Ryan Blaney 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Chris Buescher 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
William Byron 16-1
Kyle Busch 16-1
Bubba Wallace 18-1
Christopher Bell 20-1
Kyle Larson 22-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Ross Chastain 28-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Tyler Reddick 28-1
Ryan Preece 30-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Michael McDowell 40-1
Josh Berry 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Carson Hocevar 55-1
John Hunter Nemechek 55-1
Harrison Burton 60-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Jimmie Johnson 60-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
Corey Lajoie 65-1
Todd Gilliland 65-1
Anthony Alfredo 75-1
David Ragan 75-1
A.J. Allmendinger 75-1
Riley Herbst 80-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Zane Smith 100-1
Kaz Grala 100-1
B.J. McLeod 200-1

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