Favorites have fared well over the years at the annual Run for the Roses with 57 of the 149 Kentucky Derby winners having won as the favorite. That bodes well for Fierceness, the 5-2 favorite according to the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. Fierceness has won two of his last three starts, and the three-year-old colt will look to win the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs. Fierceness leads a 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup that also includes strong 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders including Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1). Should you back one of the favorites at the 150th Run for the Roses, or should you target potential 2024 Kentucky Derby sleepers like Honor Marie (20-1)?
Post time for the first leg of the Triple Crown is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby offering arguably the best betting opportunity of any single sporting event of the year, you’ll want to see what Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks.
A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014 and an $18,000 Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs in early April.
In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023.
For Saturday, he has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Weir is fading Fierceness, even though he is the top favorite. Trained by two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, Fierceness has three wins and one third in five career starts. He is coming off a resounding 13½-length victory in the Florida Derby.
But Fierceness failed both times he tried to win back-to-back starts, losing in the Champagne Stakes in October and Holy Bull Stakes in February. “I can’t get past the fact that he hasn’t put together two good races in a row in his short career,” Weir told SportsLine. Weir prefers two 2024 Kentucky Derby horses more than Fierceness.
Another curveball: Weir is high on the chances of Japanese invader Forever Young, even though he’s a 10-1 longshot. Forever Young is a proven winner, having crossed the finish line first in his last five starts.
Forever Young also comes from a championship pedigree. He’s from the second crop of Real Steel, a Dubai Turf winner. Forever Young’s estimated figures for his three-year-old races are right in line with the top three-year-old figures among the American horses, minus Fierceness. “He looks live and will be interesting at double-digit odds,” Weir told SportsLine. You can see all of Weir’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Weir is high on a big double-digit longshot who “could be ready for his best.” Weir is including this surprising horse in his 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the horse racing insider who has had multiple five-figure days at the track and just hit an $18,000 payday, and find out.