Abortion and the Need to Abort Third-Party Candidacies

We seem to be moving ever closer to cementing a Biden versus Trump rematch and given that the vast majority of U.S. voters are unhappy with that choice, it is increasingly likely there will be other candidates on most state ballots to choose from. While some are obsessed over the head-to-head Biden versus Trump polls, with 11 months until election day, they mean very little. Furthermore, with multiple third-party candidates on the ballot it becomes clear the aggregate of their collective vote will have a significant impact on the election.

Which third-party candidates will appear on what ballots is very much a work in progress. While Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is polling at about 20 percent nationally according to some measures, he still has to prove he can get through the maze of gaining access to state ballots. It very much appears Cornell West is in ardent pursuit of a ballot line, and the degree of passion that has developed among many voters of color in opposition to President Biden’s support of Israel, as well as some other issues, probably makes his candidacy even more likely. Jill Stein, who many believe deprived Hillary Clinton of a victory in 2016, by draining votes in key swing states, has also announced an intention to run. Most significantly, the group No Labels continues to gain access to state ballots for a “unity” ticket intended to entice a prominent Republican and Democrat to run as president and vice president, backed by millions of dollars the group has raised.

The critical issue in assessing a Biden versus Donald Trump rematch is just how significant third-party candidacies will be in deciding the outcome in seven key swing states. Current polls suggest that third-party candidates will drain significantly more votes from Biden than Trump and in so doing deliver the presidency to the former president. For instance, a recent Fox News poll had Biden losing the under-30 vote to Trump by 13 points when third-party candidates were introduced to the survey. A recent Wall Street Journal poll had Biden losing to Trump 31 percent to 37 percent when voters were given a choice of various third-party candidates, who in the aggregate got 17 percent support.

The big neon sign flashing at the Biden campaign is the lack of enthusiasm among constituencies they must win with substantial margins, like the youth and minority voting blocs. It is these voters who are now giving a hard look to third-party candidates like Kennedy, West, and Stein. The other group of voters, critical to Biden being re-elected are those Republicans and center-right independents that voted for Biden in 2020, not for his policies, but against Trump and for democracy. This bloc of voters is attracted to the concept of a No Labels candidacy of a centrist Democrat and Republican, in large part because that effort stands for rejecting the current state of both major political parties.

The Democrats’ answer to Biden’s high disapproval ratings, very low marks on the economy, along with enormous skepticism about his age, is to put the focus on a women’s right to reproductive health care. The abortion issue has proved over and over again in key states to have the kind of drawing power that will cause the most decisive voting bloc of all, independent suburban women, to come out in numbers and put Democrats over the top. Clearly, the resounding victories by pro-choice forces from Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, among others, has demonstrated that abortion has huge get-out-the-vote appeal, and that Republican positions on banning or substantially restricting abortion are on the wrong side of voter sentiment in most states.

So, the $64,000 question for the 2024 election cycle may well be what has greater impact on the outcome of the presidential election—protecting women’s reproductive rights or third party candidacies? In probing that issue further it is probably most important to stress that for abortion to truly work for Biden to counter the negative impact of third-party candidates draining votes from him, an initiative protecting a woman’s right to choose must be on the November ballot.

One of the best ways to motivate wavering voters is to put abortion squarely on the ballot as a state constitutional right of protection for women and then to explicitly associate the Biden campaign with that drive. Without there being an actual ballot proposition on abortion for voters to drive turnout around, swaying voters to uniquely focus on the abortion choice question being what is at stake will be very difficult. Simply campaigning on abortion as an issue that will be one among many in the mix on election day and trying to use abortion as the Democratic hope for securing victory, is not a bankable strategy without a ballot initiative to point to.

The issue then becomes what states could really make a difference in the presidential election outcome where ballot initiatives on abortion look potentially possible. Unfortunately for Biden, the only two swing states where that looks like a viable possibility are Arizona and Nevada.

The one wild card in the balance between abortion and third-party candidacy drain, is a state that many would never predict still could play the role of lying in the balance—and that is Florida. There is an attempt in Florida to get a state constitutional amendment on the ballot in November to preserve a woman’s right to an abortion. Given that Gov. Ron DeSantis has signed into law a ban on abortions after six weeks, the issue is one of enormous personal interest to women in the state. Florida is no longer considered a swing state, but then again neither are Kansas or Ohio, and abortion ballot initiatives in those states proved that voters will come out heavily in red states to embrace a woman’s right to control her own body. If the Biden campaign could use abortion in Florida to drive independent suburban women not only to the polls, but use that issue to galvanize his own support, especially among the youth vote, could it overcome the difficult math third-party candidates present for the president?

It’s a long shot, but if the abortion issue were to enable Biden to once again win Arizona and Nevada, even if he lost the other swing states that he won last time—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia—but could then win Florida, he could just barely pull out an Electoral College victory with 273 electoral votes—three more than the 270 votes he needs to win.

There just are not going to be enough states that matter come November with abortion ballot initiatives in play. However, unfortunately, there are going to be a lot of states with multiple presidential candidates pulling far more votes away from Joe Biden than from Donald Trump. It is a long shot to think that Biden winning Florida would be the answer to this abortion versus third-party candidate math—but at least it’s a shot.

What the country is walking into with votes splintered among multiple third-party candidates is the tragedy of re-electing Trump, even though once again Trump would not win a majority of the popular vote. Relying on abortion provides a very risky path to a Biden victory. The far better answer to the vital matter of reelecting Biden is that these third-party candidates instead need to abort their campaigns—to avoid Donald Trump, a proven anti-democratic authoritarian, being elevated to the presidency once again.

Tom Rogers is executive chairman of Oorbit Gaming and Entertainment, an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC, is the former CEO of TiVo, a member of Keep Our Republic (an organization dedicated to preserving the nation’s democracy). He is also a member of the American Bar Association Task Force on Democracy.

Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist and crisis communications consultant with over 30 years of experience in the political, government, nonprofit, and private sector arenas. She is also a political analyst for MSNBC/NBC News.

The views expressed in this article are the writers’ own.