Let me add a brief follow-up to my post from last night which seems to have resonated with people. I’ll say it again: I don’t think this is going to happen. But this isn’t just a caveat or covering myself if it doesn’t. It’s kind of why I did the post. In life, political analysis and so many other things we’re constantly having to be on the look out for new data which challenges our assumptions about what’s happening. In this case, the data points I mentioned definitely challenge my assumptions about what’s happening. And I’m still sticking with my assumptions! But those data points are high volume enough, not random little edge case things, that it’s at least worth my clearing my throat and telling myself I’m seeing a bunch of things that don’t square with my assumptions, sort of a punditing note to file if you will.
As I said, I’m sticking with my assumptions. But keep it in the back of your head, or write your own note to file.