The Amazon may be approaching the point of near total collapse, a new study has concluded.
The research, published in the journal Nature, found that climate change, combined with water stress and deforestation, could be pushing the Amazon rainforest closer to a tipping point where it is at risk of near or total collapse.
Led by the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, alongside experts from the University of Birmingham in the U.K., scientists identified thresholds for these stressors impacting the Amazon’s delicate balance. These climate stresses could push the rainforest to a tipping point as soon as 2050, the study reports.
“We show that the Amazon is likely to cross a tipping point due to the interaction of different drivers. The Amazon a fundamental ecosystem for biodiversity, culture, and climate stability. If this system crosses the tipping point the consequences for humanity are huge and extremely concerning,” co-author Adriane Esquivel Muelbert from the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, told Newsweek.
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Knowing what these main stressors are, and understanding them, will hopefully “develop a pathway for keeping the Amazon Forest resilient,” the authors report.
The Amazon rainforest spans an estimated 2.6 million square miles, encompassing parts of Brazil, Colombia, Peru and other South American countries.
To reach their findings, the researchers analyzed five factors linked to water stress in the Amazon—global warming, annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality intensity, length of dry season and deforestation.
They found that by 2050 all of these stressors could push the Amazon to a tipping point, which could bring it to the point of no return. As much as 47 percent of the forest could then be exposed to these stressors, which will massively disrupt its delicate ecosystem.
The Amazonian rainforests are vital to life on Earth for various reasons. They work to exchange water and energy with the atmosphere, which not only affects local climate, but the entire globe. The rainforests work to stabilize the amount of carbon in the world, holding around 150 billion to 200 billion tons of the chemical. If this carbon is released, it could increase the effects of global warming.
But the Amazon is under threat from deforestation caused by farming and infrastructure, such as roads, hydropower dams and housing. It has also experienced some devastating wildfires. In 2023, 23.3 million acres of Brazil’s rainforest were ablaze, according to the Rainforest Foundation.
It is also under threat from climate change. The Amazon’s ecosystem is extremely delicate, leaving it very susceptible to disruption from the changing climate.
“The main threats are deforestation, degradation, and climate change,” Esquivel said. “As we show in the paper, there are important feedback between these where climate change is accelerated by deforestation and vice versa. It is important to note that the whole planet is accountable for these threats either via the direct emission of GHG [greenhouse gases] or by consuming products associated with deforestation and degradation, such as meat and gold.”
The potential tipping point, outlined in this new study, could ultimately make the effects of climate change worse by affecting the Amazon’s role in keeping carbon under control.
The authors urge the need for more efforts to save the rainforest, such as ending deforestation and moving away from greenhouse gases.
“Compounding disturbances are increasingly common within the core of the Amazon,” lead author Bernardo Flores, from the University of Santa Catarina, said in a summary. “If these disturbances act in synergy, we may observe unexpected ecosystem transitions in areas previously considered as resilient, such as the moist forests of the western and central Amazon.”
Esquivel told Newsweek that there “is a big uncertainty about the future of the Amazon.” This is why we need research that aims to understand the resilience of these forests, she said.
“This includes understanding the vulnerability of tree species to global change and use this information to improve our capacity to predict the future of this system,” Esquivel said. “There is also a lot of research to be done on potential solutions for the climate crisis, we have a lot to learn from the Amazon and its peoples about ways to live in harmony with nature and create a better future.”
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.