Avdiivka Map Shows Russian Advances as Ukraine Makes Gains in South

Russian forces are advancing in their push for Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose latest maps show the state of play along the front line, including Ukrainian gains further south.

The independent Washington D.C. think tank said on Monday that, amid continued positional fighting in the Donetsk region, Kremlin-friendly milbloggers said Russian troops had entrenched themselves west of the railway line in the small city. Avdiivka’s capture by Moscow is key to Russian aims of controlling the Donbas region. Newsweek emailed the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment on Tuesday.

Russia launched an offensive for Avdiivka in October, which has come at a high cost in both troops and equipment. However, if Moscow could capture the city, this would deliver a major psychological blow to Kyiv, and allow Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, another fiercely fought-for Donetsk settlement.

Analysts have predicted that the Ukrainians will soon lose Avdiivka, potentially limiting Ukraine’s ability to launch counteroffensive operations and facilitating Russian logistical capabilities. Russia taking the city may see Moscow’s forces secure control of the highway between the cities of Donetsk, around 15 miles to the south, and Kramatorsk.

“Russian troops continue to storm the private sector of Avdiivka. Based on the footage published by the enemy, progress is recorded on several streets,” the Russian milblogger Rybar posted on Telegram.

Other milbloggers said that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka. However, the ISW said it has no visual confirmation of any of these claims. Newsweek has been unable as yet to verify them. Positional fighting also continued north, west and southwest of Avdiivka, the think tank added.

Meanwhile, ISW maps visually represent some of what is happening on the ground in this part of Donestk oblast, such as Russian troops advancing in northern Avdiivka on Sunday. However, the maps shows geolocated footage from February 9 that Ukrainian forces had made gains towards the south of the city.

Dmytro Lykhovii, the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesperson, said that Russian forces are using more armored vehicles, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles in the Avdiivka direction; a Russian milblogger said this was because of Moscow’s growing control over the area.

Lykhovii had previously told Newsweek that he expected Russia would greatly increase its use of tanks “along with increasing offensive actions” and that “the situation is tense but under control.”

Dmytro Riumshyn, the commander of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, said Russia has stopped using its “human wave” attacks because of a lack of troops, instead deploying small assault groups supported by aviation.

Riumshyn told Ukrainian television that Russia is deploying regular troops, sabotage groups, as well as “Storm-Z” and “Storm-V” units formed of convicts. but “as long as Ukraine has enough personnel and weapons, the enemy can not encircle Avdiivka,” The Kyiv Independent reported.