I find it very hard to make sense of what the likely outcomes are. But I wanted to point your attention to a series of developments in the Biden-Netanyahu relationship and the US-Israel relationship that could escalate dramatically very soon. First there’s this article in Haartez which says the US might suspend the sale of offensive weaponry to Israel by later this month. (Unfortunately the piece is paywalled.) The tripwire is a national security memorandum Biden signed last month which gives Israel until March 25th to provide the US with written assurances weapons sales from the US will only be used in accord with international law and that it will pledge to facilitate and not obstruct aid deliveries into Gaza.
That’s the calendar tripwire.
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