Biden’s Inflation Still Matters to Swing-State Voters

It seems the so-called experts on the economy cannot understand or even accept the financial despondency of the American people, especially those of modest means. From academics to media mavens to Biden campaign messaging, the incredibly condescending ruling class sermon has been this: you just don’t understand that you are actually doing well.

Of course, last week’s consumer price index inflation report poured a lot of cold water on the myth that prices are cool, and that the inflation crisis is abating. The headline number was the worst in six months at a very hot 3.5 percent annualized inflation rate that surprised economists and prediction models, but the inflationary details were much worse. Housing costs shot higher at a scorching 5.7 percent rate, and car insurance premiums vaulted higher at an incredible 22.2 percent annualized clip.

Financial markets were shocked by the data. The stock market had its worst weekly performance of 2024. Interest rates spiked on the news, and the benchmark U.S. Treasury Yield rose to 4.57 percent, which is more than four times higher than the 1.09 percent prevailing interest rate when Biden took office.

But this data set comes as no surprise to regular Americans, especially to middle- and lower-income ones. These economic strivers know they are working harder only to get poorer and they are appalled at the prices they pay for basic necessities like groceries.

The latest battleground state polling proves this point. My populist-right labor organization, the League of American Workers, just surveyed the key swing state of Wisconsin. Polling firm North Star Opinion Research sampled 600 likely voters, evenly split between Donald Trump and Joe Biden 2020 voters in the Badger State.

The topline number shows Trump up by 1 percent in a multi-candidate field in Wisconsin, a state where Biden prevailed in 2020 by only 20,000 votes out of more than 3.2 million cast. On economic issues, the disenchantment with Biden intensifies while the upside potential for Trump becomes clear. For instance, on key question of “were you better off under Trump or Biden,” the former president has a commanding 54-39 lead. Among undecided 2024 voters, only 16 percent say they are better off with Biden.

Of course, the main culprit causing this economic gloom is stubborn, vexing inflation. In this battleground survey, only 30 percent say that their incomes have kept pace with rising costs. Regarding grocery inflation, fully 63 percent blame Biden for increased food costs, relaying that the president deserves “a great deal of blame” at 42 percent or “some blame” at 21 percent.

Those elevated costs for staple items explain the gap between what economists and market traders see regarding inflation and the on-the-ground views of consumers. I traded interest rates for 25 years on Wall Street and we lived in the day-to-day volatility of economic data and markets. Short-term-oriented speculators and economists have focused more on the pace of inflation easing off the sky-high levels of 2022 and 2023—at least until this latest dreadful report.

But regular citizens take a much longer view. They realize that net prices are far higher than when Biden took office, even if the pace of the increases are not as bad as they were a couple of years ago. In reality, CPI inflation has only climbed higher and higher during Biden’s tenure. This conundrum was described well in a recent Wall Street Journal piece by MIT Sloan School of Management professors, Robert Pozen and S.P Kothari. They explained using the simple example of a sandwich:

You paid $10 for a tuna sandwich at a takeout lunch place at the start of 2021. By the start of 2024, the same tuna sandwich cost $11.80. That certainly feels like severe inflation. It wouldn’t be much comfort if an economist told you that you should feel good because the price of the tuna sandwich rose by only 3.11% in the last year, from $11.45 to $11.80.

The professors reported that incomes have not kept pace with these rising prices, validating the well-deserved angst of heartland voters, as revealed by our polling. In fact, real wages, meaning pay adjusted for inflation, fell for a stunning 24 consecutive months under Biden, the worst such streak on record.

So the sting of inflation persists, as does voter economic anxiety. In a presidential cycle that looks to be every bit as tight as 2016 and 2020, this issue presents the best opportunity for former president Trump to win—and to restore confidence in American prosperity.

Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Donald Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.