Bill Belichick’s Big Problem Might Have Been Exposed by Mike Macdonald

As the 2023 NFL season moves another day toward its conclusion, it’s looking more and more likely that Bill Belichick won’t be on the sidelines in 2024. The Seattle Seahawks became the latest club to hire a new head coach, plucking Mike Macdonald from the Baltimore Ravens. That leaves only one team, the Washington Commanders, searching for a new bench boss.

And while Belichick’s lack of progress in the job market might not be surprising—he hasn’t been linked to any openings other than the Atlanta Falcons’ post—it’s still a bit jarring. Whether you like him or not, the hoodie-wearing head coach is an NFL living legend. Why wouldn’t a sports organization want him leading it forward, even if only in on-field matters?

Well, a single tweet about Macdonald’s hiring speaks to a larger trend. Belichick might simply be too old.

Let’s break it down.

Macdonald’s Hiring Labeled a ‘Youth Movement’

Pro sports, by and large, is a young person’s game. But this offseason, the NFL coaching market has largely moved in a similar direction.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter took to X (formerly Twitter) to report that Macdonald was joining the Seahawks. He referred to the move as “a youth movement in Seattle.” While there’s a bit of editorializing there on Schefter’s part, he’s not off base. Pete Carroll, the previous head coach, is 72. The new bench boss is 36, making him the youngest head coach in the league.

But Macdonald isn’t the only younger man taking over a team. Consider the other candidates who found jobs this offseason. Raheem Morris, who took over the Falcons, is 47. Dave Canales, now with the Panthers, is 42. Brian Callahan of the Titans is 39, while Jerod Mayo, the man who replaced Belichick with the Patriots, is 37. Antonio Pierce, who’s 45, got a proper shot leading the Raiders after taking over in an interim capacity during the season.

Jim Harbaugh, the elder statesman of the group, just turned 60.

Returning to Belichick, the former Patriots bench boss is 71, and he will turn 72 before the new season begins. Lump him in with Carroll and the 72-year-old Nick Saban, who retired from his post at Alabama, and it’s easy to sort the coaches into two camps. The younger group is getting hired, while the elders aren’t leading teams anymore.

Belichick Doesn’t Seem Like a Quick-Fix Coach

Although we’ve spent plenty of time discussing coaching age, that’s not a universal strike against Belichick. Andy Reid, 65, for example, isn’t a young man at 65. He’ll be 66 when the new season begins, and, despite whispers about a potential retirement, the Chiefs aren’t rushing to push him out the door. Nothing that says an older person can’t be an NFL head coach.

But it is worth considering the amount of control any bench boss, especially Belichick assumes.

As for the Falcons’ hiring process, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson wrote that owner Arthur Blank was interested in the legend but logistical complications emerged.

“The crossroads, according to a source familiar with the Falcons and Blank, was the element of realignment that would’ve needed to take place inside the Falcons to maximize a Belichick hire,” Robinson said.

He continued: “While Blank and Belichick apparently never discussed a detailed plan of how a linear chain of command under the head coach would work, the source said meetings with Blank crystalized Belichick’s continued belief that the full scope of football operations, personnel and coaching should be under his decision-making umbrella.”

“But the Falcons, like virtually every other team in the NFL, have never entertained that type of CEO/coach power structure. Embracing it under Belichick would have raised the specter of either shuffling or redefining multiple jobs within the organization—if not rebooting some parts altogether,” Robinson said.

Sports Illustrated‘s Albert Breer shared a similar version of the events.

“My understanding is Blank went into the process wanting to hire Belichick as coach,” he wrote. “But those around the owner, fearing what that could mean for them, nudged him in different directions. After a while, the amount of change hiring Belichick could require weighed on Blank. Especially when taking into consideration that making that amount of change might only get him two years of Belichick.”

The final sentence is key. At this point, you simply don’t know how long you will get Belichick for.

If you’re a contending team that may think adding a living legend will help you get over the hump, you probably aren’t looking for a new head coach. And if you’re a genuine cellar dweller, it’s fair to wonder how much of a return you’d get on your investment.

Pretend, for a moment, you’re a current NFL owner who hires Belichick this offseason. You give the new head coach some personnel control, even if there are some checks and balances. He’ll bring in his own coaching staff and, within reason, build the roster according to his own vision.

But even in the best-case scenario, the bench boss isn’t going to remain with your team for a decade. Will he leave in two years? Only time will tell, but it’s safe to assume that another change will come around sooner than later.

And, when that moment arrives, you’ll have to make a choice. Will you bring in a member of Belichick’s coaching tree, which hasn’t exactly covered itself in collective glory over the years? Or do you bring in a new regime and accept that some things will have to change? Changing the general manager and head coach (and maybe even the quarterback) twice within five years isn’t an automatic kiss of death, but it’s expensive and less than ideal for continuity.

You can trade some instability for a Super Bowl ring, but, again, if you fired your coach this offseason, a championship is probably more than a few seasons away.

That seems to leave the legendary head coach in an awkward position where there’s no perfect match. Good teams—where he’d theoretically come in, get them over the hump and leave—don’t need a new head coach. Worse teams, who are looking to hire, don’t really benefit from handing a short-term candidate a massive level of organizational control.

Consider the Seahawks’ hiring of Mike Macdonald, which kicked off this entire conversation. If things go well, he could be a long-term leader in Seattle. If the results tank, he can be replaced without too much fuss. With General Manager John Schneider running the show, there will theoretically be a cohesive vision that’s coming from the front office, not the coaching staff.

At this point, it’s not clear what changes. But, at some point, you’d have to think an NFL team will weigh the risks and decide it’s worth bringing a living legend into the fold.

We’ll just have to wait and see when that happens and what concessions, if any, have to be made.