Can KC Make Chris Jones’ Parade Statement a Reality?

Before tragedy struck at the Kansas City Chiefs’ Championship parade on Wednesday, the day produced plenty of memorable sights. Travis Kelce took to the stage to continue the musical adventure he started on the field in Las Vegas. Isiah Pacheco had a literal goat in his arms. And, at one point, Chris Jones seemed to pledge his future to Kansas City.

To be clear, those moments are now secondary. When injuries and death enter the fray, those storylines take precedence. Some things will always be more important than what is ultimately a children’s game.

But, with that being said, sports can also provide some normalcy in the midst of a tragedy. And they can exist without minimizing what occurred on Wednesday afternoon.

With all of that being said, let’s crunch the numbers and assess the validity of Jones’ claim. Can the Chiefs really afford to keep the star defensive lineman? Or was his comment just the emotion (and possibly some adult beverages) talking?

Jones Spoke About Staying in Kansas City

During championship celebrations, you can hear plenty of platitudes about how special the assembled group is. In Kansas City, though, Jones took things a bit further.

While the big-time defensive lineman is out of contract this offseason, he told the assembled crowd that they could expect to see him back on the stage for years to come.

“We ain’t done yet. We ain’t done yet,” Jones said. “Kansas City, we will be back here next year. And for those who want Chris Jones gone, I ain’t going nowhere baby. I will be here this year, the next year and the year after.” He then started a three-peat chant.

Those comments may have been thrilling for the crowd, but the lineman’s agent had a humorous response on social media, suggesting that Jones was speaking a bit too freely.

“cut them off bartenders !!!! Too much [beer emoji],” Michael J. Katz wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

How Much Cap Space Do the Chiefs Have?

As we start working our way through the potential contract extension, the first hurdle is cap space. As much as the Chiefs might want to sign Jones, they can only work within the existing parameters.

According to Over the Cap’s data, KC has a shade under $23 million in cap space next year. But remember, that’s just the raw number. When you look at effective cap space, which estimates the cost of signing this year’s draft class and filling out the roster, the club sits somewhere around $14.5 million.

That doesn’t exactly paint a pretty financial picture, but there are some places to recoup a bit of breathing room.

Cutting Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who admittedly came up with some big catches in the playoffs after struggling during the regular-season campaign, will give KC $12 million in cap space back. And, beyond that, there’s always the prospect of restructuring Patrick Mahomes’ massive deal. There’s been some speculation that could happen, and CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones wrote that such a move would save somewhere around $37 million against the 2024 salary cap.

With all of that being said, let’s do some rough back-of-the-envelope math.

$23 million (starting cap space) + $12 million (MVS savings) + $37 million (potential Mahomes restructure) = $72 million in working capital.

Assessing the Chiefs’ Potential Costs

So, now that we’ve figured out the potential limit of the Kansas City budget, let’s consider what the club needs to accomplish this offseason and how much that would cost.

Resigning Jones:

While this seems like a no-brainer from an on-field perspective, it’s going to cost a pretty penny. We don’t know exactly what the lineman is asking for, but it’s safe to assume that his contract demands aren’t going to decrease after helping the Chiefs win another Super Bowl. That would peg his annual contract value at somewhere in the $30 million neighborhood, making him metaphorical neighbors with Nick Bosa and Aaron Donald.

The Chiefs do have the option to franchise tag their lineman, but that wouldn’t be of much help this year. Spotrac pegs the cost of that one-year tender at just over $32 million, which would still be a massive burden against the 2024 salary cap.

Could Jones give the back-to-back champs a hometown discount? It’s possible, but his 2023 holdout suggests that it’s not very likely. And, with three Super Bowl rings to his name, it would be understandable for the ace pass-rusher to a chase massive raise. His legacy, after all, is largely secured.

Resigning L’Jarius Sneed:

If Jones is the star up front for the Chiefs’ defense, Sneed is the anchor in the secondary. The cornerback travels with the opposing team’s top receiver, giving coordinator Steve Spagnuolo the security to bring all sorts of creative pressures.

The defensive back, however, just played out the final year of his rookie contract, putting him in line for a massive raise. And while it remains to be seen how things will play out in the open market, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see his annual compensation land somewhere in the $18 million range. That places him near the upper echelon at his position but not at the top of the list; that cap hit would be the seventh highest among NFL corners.

But, again, it’s possible that another team swoops in and tries to start a bidding war knowing that the Chiefs have other fish to fry. That could leave them with a choice of paying a premium (let’s say $20 million for argument’s sake) or letting Sneed walk.

Filling Out the Roster:

While Jones and Sneed are the marquee players, they’re not Kansas City’s only free agents. The AFC West club will see plenty of contracts expire this offseason, and one way or another, those positions will need to be filled.

At linebacker, for example, both Drue Tranquill and Willie Gay Jr. are free agents. Even if you can’t re-sign either of them, you’ll need to replace them to fill out the position group. The same can be said at running back (both Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are free agents, and someone needs to backup Isiah Pacheco) and at punter (Tommy Townsend is out of contract). And while those depth moves might not be exciting or expensive, the money still adds up.

There’s also the reality of signing this year’s draft class to new contracts. Those are comparatively affordable, but they still need to get done.

Adding New Talent, Especially at Receiver:

For much of the 2023 campaign, the narrative around the Chiefs was that their wide receiver room lacked the talent to live up to the rest of the team. And while Rashee Rice came on down the stretch, there’s still work to be done in that position group. Valdes-Scantling is potentially gone, and the duo of Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore failed to make a difference, even before injury issues cropped up. Mecole Hardman is bound for free agency, and Justin Watson, despite his ability to make a big catch or two per game, isn’t going to be the linchpin of an offense.

That suggests some reinforcements will have to arrive. This year’s NFL draft is projected to be deep at receiver, but Moore and Rice represent the risk of relying on a rookie to play a key role in the offense; there’s a steep learning curve adjusting to the NFL, and sometimes players just can’t step up.

Adding a free agent receiver, however, would cost money. And if you’re chasing a big fish like a Mike Evans or a Michael Pittman Jr., you have to be prepared to pony up the $20+ million that Spotrac currently projects as their annual value.

That Suggests Something Has To Give

Now, let’s do a bit more math. Remember, we estimated that the Chiefs could be working with something like $72 million in cap space.

$30 million (Chris Jones extension) + $18 million (L’Jarius Sneed extension) = $48 million

$72 million-$48 million= $24 million.

On paper, that seems pretty positive. Remember, the Chiefs are entering this offseason with just under $23 million in cap space, so having a shade more after (theoretically) re-signing Jones and Sneed seems like a good position to be in. But remember, there’s still more work to be done.

If we factor in the cost of the draft class and filling out the roster, that bumps us down to around $15 million (based on Over the Cap’s effective cap space), which would seem to put a top-tier wide receiver out of reach. Could someone like Hollywood Brown sneak in just under that ceiling? Maybe, but anything can happen if there’s a bidding war.

But with that being said, extra space can be made. If you want to release Charles Omenihu, for example, on the idea that he’s coming off a serious injury, that saves around $7 million. At the same time, though, losing him, Mike Danna and Derrick Nnadi in the same offseason would potentially leave a weakness up front. At that point, you’re trying to weigh the present (Can you squeeze another win out of the current roster?) against the future (Do you want to keep the championship window open for the entirety of Mahomes’ contract?)

Again, something probably has to give somewhere in the roster.

Beyond that, it’s also worth remembering that this budget doesn’t leave the breathing room to improve elsewhere. Say general manager Brett Veach wants to bring in some difference makers, like how he added Tranquill, Mike Edwards and Omenihu during the 2023 offseason. Those contracts, which would theoretically cost more than simple replacement-level players, would have to prompt compromises elsewhere.

To be clear, the Chiefs are far from salary cap hell. They have some breathing room, and the front office has proven to be adept at keeping the ball rolling, whether that’s through restructuring deals, knowing when to move on from a veteran or identifying key contributors in the draft.

But, with all of that being said, it looks like some compromises will have to be made this offseason. And that’s where Veach and his staff earn their money.