Republicans are hoping to take back control of Kentucky’s governorship next month, but polls show that Democratic Governor Andy Beshear holds a consistent lead despite the state’s conservative lean.
Kentucky is among the most Republican-friendly states in the country, backing former President Donald Trump by 26 points in 2020. However, Democrats have found down-ballot success in recent election cycles, with Beshear eking out a win in 2019.
Democrats are hoping to replicate his electoral victory in the closely-watched election, set to be held on November 7. Republican gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, who currently serves as the state’s attorney general, trails Beshear in recent polling of the race—but many surveys point to a close race.
Beshear has highlighted his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as his stance on education, throughout the campaign, in an attempt to emphasize his bipartisan appeal. Meanwhile Cameron, who received the endorsement of Trump, has embraced conservative stances on social issues such as abortion and crime as he seeks to galvanize his party’s base.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Jon Cherry/Getty Images
The most recent non-partisan polling of the race showed Beshear with a substantial lead over Cameron.
An Emerson College poll—conducted from October 1 to 3 among 450 registered voters—found Beshear leading Cameron by 16 percentage points, winning 49 percent of the vote to Cameron’s 33 percent.
The survey found Beshear winning 27 percent of voters who backed Trump in the 2020 presidential race. Those voters make up a critical bloc that Beshear would likely need to overperform among to win reelection in such a conservative state. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Beshear and Cameron campaigns for comment via email.
Republicans’ own polls also show Beshear leading Cameron.
A poll conducted by co/efficient for the Bluegrass Freedom Action PAC found Beshear with a 2 point lead. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they planned to cast a ballot for Beshear, while 45 percent said they intend to vote for Cameron.
The poll surveyed 1,845 likely voters from October 18 to 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.23 percentage points.
Beshear also has a fundraising advantage over Cameron. In a 30-day period starting on September 9, Beshear raised nearly $1.5 million, while Cameron raised about $530,000, according to Louisville Public Media.
Beshear Is Among Nation’s Most Popular Governors
Beshear has consistently ranked among the most popular governors in the United States.
A Morning Consult poll conducted from April 1 to June 30 found that Beshear is the fifth most popular governor in the country. Only 32 percent of Kentucky voters said they disapprove of his job performance, while 64 percent gave him positive marks.
The son of former Governor Steve Beshear, Andy Beshear was first elected to his office in 2019, defeating former Governor Matt Bevin by less than half of a point in a closely watched race.
Democrats enjoyed several victories in conservative-leaning states during the Trump era, but Republicans have made more gains since 2020 when President Joe Biden beat Trump, including flipping Louisiana’s governorship earlier this month in another closely-watched race when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry won.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.