The 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals continue with a high-profile showdown on Saturday evening. Kaseya Center hosts Game 6 between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Miami won the first three games of the series, taking a commanding advantage, while Boston responded with back-to-back wins to stay alive. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Heat, with Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) listed as questionable for the Celtics.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -2.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 210 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -145, Heat +122
- BOS: The Celtics are 27-22 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 20-28-2 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston’s performance in the last two games harkens back to the team’s overall dominance during the regular season. The Celtics gave up fewer than 1.1 points per possession on the defensive end and, on offense, Boston returned to dominance. The Celtics scored 123.5 points per 100 possessions over two straight wins, connecting on 50.9% of field goal attempts and 40.5% of 3-point attempts. Boston took care of the ball at a tremendous level, committing only 10.0 turnovers per game, and generated 25.5 assists and 16.0 second-chance points per contest.Â
For the full 2023 NBA playoffs, Boston is scoring 117.4 points per 100 possessions with the best true shooting percentage (60.1%) of any team. That comes after a regular season in which the Celtics posted the second-best offensive rating (117.3) in the NBA, and Boston finished in the top eight in 3-pointers, 2-point accuracy, 3-point accuracy, free throw accuracy, turnover rate and assists. Jayson Tatum is the centerpiece for Boston, averaging more than 30 points per game during the regular season, and he generated 27.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game while shooting 57.9% from the field in Games 4 and 5. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami’s organizational principles yield a strong defensive infrastructure, headlined by Bam Adebayo as the team’s primary defender on the back line. The Heat execute at a high level defensively, but Miami is also playing effective basketball on offense in the playoffs. Miami is scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, including 118.2 points per 100 in the series against Boston. The Heat are shooting 50.2% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range in the series, and Miami is led by a top-tier creator in Jimmy Butler.Â
He is averaging 28.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while making more than half of his field goal attempts in the playoffs, and Butler keys a group that is elite at home. Miami is 6-1 at Kaseya Center during the postseason, out-scoring opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions. The Heat will welcome the Celtics to a raucous environment in Game 6, and Miami is equipped to perform well on both ends. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.