(Bloomberg) — Portugal’s center-right AD coalition is set to win over its Socialist opponents in parliamentary elections, according to an exit poll, setting the stage for a minority government having to rely on the support of smaller parties to govern.
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The poll has the group, led by the PSD, winning 29%-33% of the vote, which would give it as many as 91 seats in parliament. That’s short of the 116 needed for a majority. The Socialists, who have been in power since 2015, secured 25%-29% support, according to the poll by broadcaster RTP. Another poll from TVI also gave the AD the lead in the election.
Far-right party Chega recorded the biggest jump in support compared with the 2022 election. It could get at least 40 seats, more than triple its current tally. This means the AD would be able to control parliament with the backing of Chega.
Andre Ventura, who founded Chega in 2019, said after the exit polls were released that its results are enough to allow them a role in an AD-led government. But AD leader Luis Montenegro has ruled out any agreement with the party.
The early election was needed after Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa quit in November amid a probe into alleged influence peddling. Costa still campaigned for the Socialists before the election, hoping to extend the party’s eight years in power. That now looks like it’s not going to happen, based on the parliament seat estimates in the RTP poll.
(All times are Lisbon time)
High Voter Turnout (8:55 p.m.)
Voter turnout on Sunday is set to be the highest for a parliamentary election in about 15 years, the RTP exit poll indicated. The number of Portuguese voting exceeded that of the past two elections in 2019 and 2022, both won by the Socialists.
Chega Insists It Wants a Role in Government (8:51 p.m.)
Chega leader Ventura hailed what he says is a “historic” result for the party, having received enough voter support to allow him to negotiate a role in the next government. “Today the Portuguese spoke out and clearly said that they want a two-party government – Chega and AD,” Ventura said in comments broadcast by RTP television. Together, the two parties would effectively control parliament.
However, a coalition looks unlikely. Before the vote, AD leader Montenegro rejected any alliance with Chega. In a televised debate on Feb. 12, Montenegro said Ventura stood for “xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” ideas and represented the “degree zero of politics.”
Minority Government Will Have to Make Concessions (8:38 p.m.)
The lack of an outright majority leaves Portugal in a “murky situation,” with a government dependent on support from other parties in parliament to govern, says Marina Costa Lobo, professor of political science at the University of Lisbon.
The AD has ruled out an alliance with Chega, meaning it will have to get backing from the Socialist Party, something Costa Lobo says will complicate major decisions like the annual budget. “We are in a dire situation where concessions and compromises will have to be made.”
Far Right Gains (8:20 p.m.)
Chega comes out as the biggest winner, significantly increasing the number of seats in Parliament, according to the RTP exit poll. It will get between 40 and 46 seats. That compares with 12 lawmakers in 2022 and one in the 2019 election.
Like other far-right parties in Europe, Chega has achieved a rapid rise — mostly because of its leader Andre Ventura. The 41-year-old former tax inspector and football commentator on television has appealed to a growing number of disgruntled voters by blaming the successive center-left and center-right governments for what he says is systemic corruption in Portugal.
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