What was first communicated by a slowdown in weapons transfers and then confirmed in leaks has now become public. Joe Biden is saying he will cut off the supply of heavy munitions (big bombs from the sky) if Israel goes ahead with a major ground in incursion into Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, which is both the last refuge of Hamas’s intact battalions and hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians who have fled other parts of the strip over the last six months. This is in addition to the city’s normal population.
I have seen some commentators who have absolutely no love for Netanyahu saying this undercuts whatever leverage Israel has in the hostage negotiations by depriving them of the threat to go into Rafah in force. There’s likely something to that. But it is basically a certainty that this move was absolutely the final straw with the US insisting and insisting and insisting not to do this without a plan to evacuate the city and the Israeli government saying too bad. We’re doing it.