Elections will take place for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives in November giving, Democrats a chance to regain control of the chamber that they narrowly lost in November 2022.
There are 219 Republicans in the lower chamber against 212 Democrats, with another four seats vacant, including New York’s 3rd Congressional District, formerly held by disgraced Republican George Santos, the election for which takes place on Tuesday.
There are 13 GOP-controlled districts ranked as toss-ups in terms of which party will win in November, according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report (CPR), an organization that conducts detailed election analysis headed by veteran journalist Amy Walter.
A new Alabama district, drawn up after the state’s congressional map was thrown out by the Supreme Court for having only one Black-majority district, is also likely to vote Democrat, according to the report.
The 13 Republican House seats labelled toss-ups by the CPR are in Arizona, California, New Jersey, New York and Oregon. They, alongside their present occupants, are:
- AZ-01: David Schweikert
- AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani
- CA-13: John Duarte
- CA-22: David Valadao
- CA-27: Mike Garcia
- CA-41: Ken Calvert
- NJ-07: Thomas Kean Jr.
- NY-03: Vacant
- NY-04: Anthony D’Esposito
- NY-17: Mike Lawler
- NY-19: Marc Molinaro
- NY-22: Brandon Williams
- OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer.
Ten Democratic House seats are also listed as toss-ups by the CPR, spread across Colorado, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington. They, and their Democratic incumbents, are:
- CO-08: Yadira Caraveo
- ME-02: Jared Golden
- MI-07: Elissa Slotkin (launched 2024 Senate bid)
- MI-08: Dan Kildee (not running for reelection)
- NC-01: Don Davis
- NM-02: Gabe Vasquez
- OH-13: Emilia Sykes
- PA-07: Susan Wild
- PA-08: Matt Cartwright
- WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
In November 34, Senate seats will also be up for election, with the CPR saying that five are particularly at risk of flipping from Democrat to Republican, potentially costing President Joe Biden’s party its wafer-thin majority in the upper chamber.
Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe told Newsweek: “I think the Senate majority is the Republicans’ to lose.”
Robert Alexander/Anna Moneymaker/GETTY
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon agreed that his party is vulnerable but said the outcome will depend on whom the GOP selects as its candidates.
“The Democratic Senate majority is precarious but it was in 2022 and the Republicans failed to seal the deal,” he said. “We should wait until we know the identity of the GOP nominees before we pass judgment.”
A number of candidates heavily promoted and supported by former President Donald Trump, including Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia, suffered defeats in November 2022, allowing the Democrats to hold their Senate majority.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.