Does Colin Allred Have What It Takes To Beat Ted Cruz?

Is Rep. Colin Allred the following Beto O’Rourke?

Final week, Allred introduced he was operating for U.S. Senate in Texas in opposition to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, the conservative firebrand whom liberals like to hate. Democrats are hoping that Allred can end what O’Rourke began in 2018, when he electrified the Democratic grassroots and got here inside 3 proportion factors of unseating Cruz. Nevertheless it gained’t be simple: Texas remains to be a Republican-leaning state that can most likely require a candidate even stronger than O’Rourke for Democrats to win, and it’s not clear that Allred is that candidate.

If Democrats wish to choose up any Senate seats in 2024, they could have to beat Cruz. The Senate battleground subsequent yr is extraordinarily favorable to Republicans. There are not any Republican-held Senate seats on the poll in states that President Biden carried in 2020, which means that Democrats must compete in enemy territory in the event that they wish to defend in opposition to doable losses in states like West Virginia or Montana. And of the 11 Republican-held Senate seats up for election, solely Florida and Texas are even remotely weak.

So why would possibly Texas change into a greater guess for Democrats than Florida? Over the previous few election cycles, Florida has taken a tough proper flip as Texas has been getting bluer. Within the 2012 presidential race, Texas was 17 factors redder than Florida. Within the 2020 presidential race, it was solely 3 factors redder. And in 2022, Republicans gained statewide elections in Florida by a mean of 19 factors; in Texas, they gained them by a mean of 13 factors. That’s nonetheless fairly purple, however amid a sea of dangerous choices, it’s doable that Texas will likely be Democrats’ most promising (or, at a minimal, least hopeless) pickup alternative within the Senate subsequent yr.

And in Allred, they now have a critical candidate. The previous NFL participant was first elected to Congress in 2018, when he defeated an 11-term incumbent by 7 factors in a traditionally Republican district within the Dallas suburbs. He gained reelection by 6 factors in 2020 earlier than redistricting positioned him in a brand new, dark-blue district for 2022. (That district, the thirty second, will now be an open seat in 2024.)

Allred’s electoral observe report isn’t as spectacular because it sounds, although. His outdated district could have been Republican up to now, but it surely began shifting to the left in 2016 as a part of the suburbs’ political realignment nationally. In response to Day by day Kos Elections, it voted for Mitt Romney by 16 factors in 2012, however by 2020, it was virtually a secure Democratic seat, choosing Biden by 10. In different phrases, Allred doubtless gained due to nationwide tendencies, not his distinctive strengths as a candidate.

Certainly, in contrast with different Democrats, Allred’s performances haven’t been something particular. In any case, Biden truly outperformed Allred in his district by 4 factors in 2020. And in 2018, when Allred gained by 7 factors, O’Rourke carried his district by 11 factors, in accordance with information from the Texas Legislative Council. Clearly, neither Biden nor O’Rourke gained statewide, so Allred’s incapability to match, not to mention exceed, their efficiency doesn’t bode properly for his prospects in 2024.

That stated, Biden and O’Rourke doubtless benefited from operating in opposition to polarizing Republicans in former President Donald Trump and Cruz, respectively — a bonus that Allred didn’t have. Allred’s opponents had been a longtime incumbent in 2018 and a businesswoman from a distinguished political household in 2020, each of whom had been higher suits for the district’s much less confrontational model of Republicanism. It’s affordable to count on that Allred would do higher if matched up in opposition to Cruz, who nonetheless has a mediocre 45 percent-to-41 p.c approval-disapproval ranking within the state, in accordance with the College of Texas (just like when he went up in opposition to O’Rourke in 2018). 

Having a nationally (in)well-known opponent must also assist him rake within the dough; Allred ranked simply 148th in fundraising amongst Home candidates in 2022 (with $3.5 million raised), however O’Rourke ranked 535th (!) in 2016 (with $591,000 raised) and nonetheless managed to lift an eye-popping $80 million for his 2018 Senate race. Certainly, Allred’s marketing campaign has already introduced that it raised $2 million within the first 36 hours after his announcement.

Allred nonetheless has a tricky highway forward of him. First, he must win the Democratic major, which it doesn’t seem like he’ll must himself; state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who represents Uvalde and has change into a distinguished gun-control advocate within the wake of the college taking pictures there, is predicted to run as properly. After which he wants to determine win a normal election in a state that hasn’t elected a single Democrat to statewide workplace up to now 28 years. Ultimately, possibly Allred would be the subsequent O’Rourke in any case: a extremely touted Democratic candidate who places up a combat, however in the end falls quick.