Donald Trump received a warning sign about his voters’ motivation to head to the polls in November, according to a new survey done in Florida.
The Emerson College poll delivered some good news to the former president and presumptive Republican nominee for the race against President Joe Biden. It found Trump leading Biden by about 13 points in the Sunshine State, long viewed as one of the nation’s premier swing states that have drifted toward the GOP in recent election cycles.
However, the poll also found that likely Biden voters are feeling more motivated to vote than likely Trump voters in Florida.
Nearly 67 percent of voters who say they plan to vote for Biden said they are more motivated than usual to participate in the election, according to the survey. Less than 61 percent of voters leaning toward Trump say they are more motivated to vote than usual.
This comes as Florida Republicans face new concerns about how the issue of abortion might affect the 2024 elections. On April 1, the state’s Supreme Court issued a ruling allowing Florida’s abortion restrictions to stay in place while also permitting a ballot question about reproductive rights to appear on the November ballot.
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Reproductive rights have emerged as a tricky issue for Republicans after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, ending the constitutional right to an abortion. Since that ruling, voters in conservative-leaning states have rejected efforts to restrict abortion rights and Republicans have suffered disappointing electoral results.
The Florida ballot initiative, which would amend the state’s Constitution and provide broader abortion access in the state, could motivate more abortion-rights voters to head to the polls.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Biden campaigns for comment via email.
The Emerson College poll also found that voters who oppose Florida’s abortion law are more likely to vote. Sixty-two percent of voters who said they believe the law is too strict said they are more motivated than usual, compared with 53 percent of voters who say it is not strict enough and 59 percent who believe it is about right.
Still, the poll found that 51 percent of respondents plan to vote for Trump, while only 38 percent say they are going to vote for Biden, a gap of 13 points. In 2020, Trump won Florida by only about 3 percentage points.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 9 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Republicans have seen their power in Florida grow in recent election cycles, passing a major registration milestone last month. Experts have pointed to Republican gains among Hispanic voters near Miami, and the arrival in Florida of more conservative transplants from the Northeast and Midwest, for the Republicans’ surge in the state, which threatens to keep Democrats out of power if they do not reverse these trends.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.