Donald Trump leads Joe Biden among Hispanic voters in Texas ahead of the presidential election in November, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) between April 5 and 10, revealed that Trump holds a “surprising” 4-percentage-point lead over Biden among Hispanics, scoring 41 percent of the vote compared to 37 percent. The poll featured five possible candidates, including Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party, Jill Stein of the Green Party and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent.
Support among Hispanic and Latino voters will be critical in November. Several critical swing states, including Florida, Arizona and Nevada, have sizeable Latino populations and even small voting changes could hamper their chances of success.
TxHPF revealed that Trump’s lead in this demographic is due in part to his advantage among Hispanic Born-Again Christians, achieving 61 percent of their vote compared to 18 percent for Biden. Conversely, Hispanics who consider themselves to be non-religious are more than three times likely to vote for Biden, with 53 percent to 15 percent for Trump.
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Trump is also ahead among Hispanics without a four-year degree, securing 43 percent of their vote to 32 percent for Biden. However, among those with a four-year degree, 43 percent backed Biden and 38 percent backed Trump.
Overall, the poll revealed that Trump is well ahead of Biden in Texas among all likely voters, leading by 12 percentage points with 46 percent of the vote to Biden’s 34 percent. Kennedy Jr. is projected to score just 9 percent of the vote.
The findings also revealed that Trump maintains a 12-point lead over Biden even if Kennedy Jr. drops out, with the former president securing 48 percent of the vote to Biden’s 36 percent.
In a further blow to Biden, who has been pushing to win over independents and moderate Republicans, the findings reveal that if Kennedy Jr. drops out, 26 percent of his voters would back Trump, compared to 21 percent for Biden. Meanwhile, 17 percent of Kennedy Jr.’s voters would back minor-party candidates, and 36 percent remain unsure about who they would back.
The data was obtained from a representative survey of 1,600 likely Texas voters, and had an overall margin of error of +/- 2.45 percent. Among the Hispanic sample specifically, there was a margin of error of +/- 4.88 percent.
Jason Villalba, the CEO of TxHPF, said that Texas Hispanics have shown a “growing willingness to consider and ultimately vote for Republican candidates” across recent election cycles.
“This, however, is the first time we have seen a Republican statewide candidate attract a majority of Texas likely Hispanic voters,” he said. “Trump’s appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and men has helped him cobble together a level of support for Hispanics not seen since George W. Bush.”
Leticia Van de Putte, a former Texas state senator and a member of the TxHPF board, said: “Democrats can no longer assume that they will automatically receive an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote.
“While Democrats continue to see strengthening electoral support resulting from urbanization and with more progressive voters moving to Texas from other parts of the country, the Hispanic vote is clearly in play. Both political parties must vie for the vote of Hispanics. The party that comes out on top in the coming battles will hold political power in Texas for a generation.”
An estimated 36.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the presidential election this year, up almost 4 million from 2020, according to data from the Pew Research Center. Latinos are projected to account for 14.7 percent of all eligible voters this year, up from 13.6 percent in 2020.
While Trump made gains among Hispanics in 2020, a majority of 59 percent of Latino voters still backed Biden that year.
Biden has made a concerted effort to win over Latino voters in recent weeks, visiting Arizona, Nevada and Texas in March.
Speaking to voters at a Mexican restaurant in Phoenix last month, Biden said: “You’re the reason why, in large part, I beat Donald Trump. Let’s beat him again.
“I need you badly. [Vice President] Kamala [Harris] and I desperately need your help because there are only about six or seven states that are going to determine the outcome of this election. They are toss-up states. This is one of them.”
Newsweek has contacted Biden’s and Trump’s campaigns for comment outside of normal working hours.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.