Joe Biden has extended his lead over Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with the president receiving significantly more support from the potentially key Independent demographic, according to a poll.
A Quinnipiac University survey shows the president leading his expected Republican challenger in November’s election 50 to 44 percent, with Biden up three points from the previous poll in December (47 to 46 percent).
When broken down further, the data shows that Independent voters are backing Biden over Trump in a head-to-head matchup (52 to 40 percent), as well as in a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election.
When these other candidates are introduced, Biden receives 35 percent support from Independent voters, Trump receives 27 percent support, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. comes in third at 24 percent, fellow Independent candidate Cornel West receives five percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein also on five percent support.
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While Trump is expected to clinch the 2024 GOP nomination following clear victories in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, there have been frequent suggestions that the MAGA former president does not have enough support from the general population to win the next election.
In order to do so, Trump would need to win the backing of moderate Republicans and Independents in several key swing states that Biden took in 2020.
The poll also shows that Biden has a huge lead over Trump with women voters, with the president increasing his lead from the previous Quinnipiac survey. Some 58 percent of women voters said they would vote for Biden in November, compared to 36 percent who support Trump. Biden’s support among female voters is up from December when it was 53 percent.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
Trump’s office has been contacted for comment via email.
When former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, Trump’s only serious rival left in the GOP primary, is introduced in the Quinnipiac University poll, she beats Biden in a direct matchup (47 percent to 42 percent), as well as winning over more Independent voters than the president (55 to 37 percent).
Haley does lose support in a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election race with her as the Republican nominee. According to the poll, Biden receives 36 percent when Independent and Green party candidates are added to the list, with Haley receiving 29 percent support, Kennedy Jr. on 21 percent support, West on three percent support, and Stein on two percent.
“In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to Independents. Add third-party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part because of her weakness among Republicans,” Malloy said.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted with 1,852 adults via telephone between January 25 – 29, 2024. The margin of sampling error of +/- 2.3 percentage points.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.