Former President Donald Trump appears to be losing support among white evangelicals to President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race.
On March 3, a poll from Fox News found Biden gaining support among white evangelical voters compared to previous polls. The most recent poll, which surveyed voters from February 25 to 28, found 28 percent of white evangelical voters saying they’d vote for Biden if the election were held today.
According to the poll, 68 percent of white evangelical voters sided with Trump in the 2024 election. While Trump still leads, the poll shows that support for Biden is increasing.
In October, a Fox News poll found 23 percent of white evangelical voters saying they’d support Biden if the election were held today, compared to 73 percent that sided with Trump. The poll surveyed 1,007 registered voters from October 6 to 9.
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Similarly, in August, a Fox News poll found 17 percent of white evangelical voters supporting Biden in a hypothetical matchup against Trump. According to the poll, 66 percent sided with Trump.
Overall, Trump and Biden remain in a tightly contested race, with the most recent Fox News poll showing 47 percent of voters supporting Biden, while 49 percent sided with Trump.
White evangelicals’ support in the 2016 and 2020 elections was crucial for Trump. He secured a formidable alliance with White evangelical Christians, who gravitated toward him for his stance on abortion and religious freedom. Trump pledged to champion evangelical causes, appoint conservative judges, and protect religious liberties.
Trump courted evangelical leaders and made explicit promises that resonated with their core concerns. According to exit polls, Trump received the backing of about 80 percent of white evangelicals in 2016, a critical factor in his narrow victory in swing states. Trump largely maintained that base, with exit polls showing between 76 percent and 81 percent support, according to the Associated Press.
In the run-up to the 2020 election, Trump’s administration had delivered on many of its promises to evangelicals. The appointment of three conservative justices to the U.S. Supreme Court and the implementation of policies perceived as pro-life and pro-religious freedom reinforced his support among white evangelicals. Trump’s stance on Israel, particularly moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, further endeared him to evangelical Christians, who see the state of Israel as fulfilling biblical prophecy.
Despite a tumultuous first term marked by impeachment, a global pandemic and widespread social unrest, Trump’s evangelical base has remained largely intact, although Biden has tried to break into that support.
Biden, a devout Catholic with a public record of discussing his faith in the context of his policy decisions and personal resilience, has made concerted efforts to reach out to religious voters, including White evangelicals. Biden often speaks about the role of faith in public life and the importance of religious freedom, seeking to connect on a personal level with faith-based voters.
Newsweek reached out to Biden’s campaign and Trump’s spokesperson via email for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.