Donald Trump could yet be in a competitive GOP primary election after former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie pulled out of the race.
Christie, an ex-Trump ally who is now a critic of the former president, confirmed he is suspending his 2024 campaign just days ahead of the Iowa caucus, at a town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday.
Christie was already facing calls to pull out of the race so Republican voters could unify around one challenger to Trump, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley looking like the most viable candidate to face off against the former president. Trump has long been the overwhelming frontrunner in the GOP presidential primary, often leading polls by more than 40 and 50 points from his nearest challenger.
However, Haley’s 2024 campaign has been gathering momentum in recent weeks, with a recent American Research Group poll revealing Trump is leading Haley in New Hampshire by four points (37 percent to 33 percent). A CNN New Hampshire poll showed Haley seven points behind Trump in the state—39 to 32 percent—which will hold the first-in-the-nation primary election on January 23.
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The poll placed Christie in third place with 12 percent, with 65 percent of those who backed the former New Jersey governor saying they would support Haley in the primary if he was not in the race. Fewer than one in 10 of Christie supporters in the CNN poll said they would back any other candidate beyond Haley if he dropped out of the race, with 13 percent saying they would not vote at all.
Glen Smith, professor of political science at the University of North Georgia, said Christie’s exit from the primary will “undoubtedly” help Haley in New Hampshire, which could spur on the rest of her 2024 campaign.
“I would say New Hampshire is now a coin flip between Haley and Trump. If Haley wins in New Hampshire, she will get a huge boost in momentum leading up to her home state of South Carolina,” Smith told Newsweek.
“Polls favor Trump now, but history shows that polls change very quickly following early state primaries. If Haley wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, the nomination will be a battle going forward. If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire by double digits, the race is over even before Super Tuesday.”
Christie suspended his 2024 campaign having failed to qualify for the fifth GOP primary debate in Iowa on Wednesday night. The debate was attended by just Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who at one time was considered Trump’s biggest rival in the 2024 primary but whose campaign has drastically floundered.
Smith said that while DeSantis performed better than Haley during the debate in Des Moines, the “most important event of the night” happened before the event started because of Christie’s announcement.
“DeSantis has pinned his campaign on Iowa and doesn’t look good in New Hampshire. He’s hoping to pull a Jimmy Carter and spring out of Iowa to boost him in other states. I’m skeptical it’ll work, but the Iowa caucuses are notoriously unpredictable,” Smith said.
“DeSantis outperformed Haley in the debate, but this was a better day for Haley because Christie dropped out.”
Two people who doubt that Haley can now present a serious challenge to Trump in the GOP primary are Christie and the former president himself. In a hot mic moment ahead of his New Hampshire event, Christie was heard saying Haley is “going to get smoked” against Trump and that “she’s not up to this.”
In a Wednesday post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Nikki Haley is losing in the Polls to Biden everywhere, except one very early, very FAKE poll, that she uses to a fair the Welle. I am beating Crooked Joe in every current poll!”
Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, said that while it is not a certainty that Christie’s supporters would vote for Haley, the former UN ambassador must consider his dropping out a positive outcome for her. Christie was arguably the candidate most critical of Trump in the GOP race while Haley, if elected to office, vowed to pardon Trump if he is found guilty of any of the 91 criminal charges he faces.
“Christie supporters may not automatically flock to Haley. Maybe a lot of them will just stay home now, or maybe they’ll change their minds about who their second choice is,” Rakich wrote for ABC News.
“The 13 days until the New Hampshire primary is still an eternity in political terms. But there’s little doubt that Christie’s departure from the race is good for Haley. The only question is how good.”
In a statement released after Christie suspended his White House bid, Haley said: “Chris Christie has been a friend for many years. I commend him on a hard-fought campaign.
“Voters have a clear choice in this election: the chaos and drama of the past or a new generation of conservative leadership. I will fight to earn every vote, so together we can build a strong and proud America.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.