GOP’s House Majority Hanging by a Thread

House Republicans are facing a shrinking majority after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced on Wednesday he was standing down.

McCarthy’s announcement comes after GOP New York Congressman George Santos was removed following a House Ethics Committee investigation earlier this month.

Laws in California mean a special election is likely to be called before the one to replace Santos, which is expected in February 2024. The vacancy will mean Republicans have just three votes to play with before requiring cooperation from Democrats in the House.

McCarthy, still fresh from a bruising speakership, said he plans to “serve America in new ways” after confirming he would stand down at the end of the year. “I know my work is only getting started,” he said in a Wall Street Journal column.

Rumors of a possible departure from the former speaker were abound amid serious infighting in the party over the past month. Fierce critic of McCarthy, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, appeared to take pleasure in his colleague’s early exit, despite the possible ramifications for his party.

“McLeavin’,” he said in a social media post. A video titled “Bye Kevin” is currently available on Gaetz’s website and it was he who set the plan to remove McCarthy from the speakership in October.

Other GOP members expressed concern. The current majority in Congress’ lower chamber is slim and will fall to 221-213 when McCarthy leaves and several Republicans have admitted publicly that McCarthy’s departure is likely to cause problems.

“It’s going to be difficult for any speaker to satisfy everybody in Congress,” Idaho Representative Mike Simpson said, according to Reuters. “It might make it more difficult on Speaker [Mike] Johnson, trying to maintain his majority.”

“Hopefully no one dies,” added MAGA Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene on X, formerly known as Twitter. The Georgia Congresswoman, no fan of McCarthy added: “Now in 2024, we will have a 1 seat majority in the House of Representatives. Congratulations Freedom Caucus for one and 105 Rep who expel our own for the other. I can assure you Republican voters didn’t give us the majority to crash the ship.”

Newsweek has contacted the GOP for comment via email.

Gaetz himself faces trouble as he is under investigation from the House Ethics Committee, which was responsible for the removal of Santos earlier this month. Santos was found, among other things, to have used campaign funds for his own gains—he has denied any criminal wrongdoing.

The committee announced the investigation into Gaetz in 2021, when it was controlled by Democrats, over allegations that he “may have engaged in sexual misconduct and/or illicit drug use.” Also included in the range of suspected House violations were that he shared inappropriate images on the House floor, accepted a bribe and used campaign funds for personal use. The committee has been largely quiet since the announcement of an investigation.

Newsweek reached out to Gaetz’s office for comment. In February, the Justice Department informed Gaetz’s representatives charges would not be brought in relation to a sex-trafficking investigation. The Florida Republican had been dogged by allegations regarding alleged sex trafficking involving one woman aged 17. Gaetz strongly denied any wrongdoing.

McCarthy has said the likes of Gaetz spell problems for his party because of a deep divide in Republican politics. “You have a cross section,” McCarthy told Politico in November. “You have Gaetz, who belongs in jail, and you have serious members.”

Retirements are also a possibility for a number of House Republicans. Six members had already confirmed before McCarthy’s announcement they plan to leave the chamber at some point.

Ohio Republican Bill Johnson is set to leave Congress in 2024 to take up a position at Youngstown State University. Johnson, among a number of members on both sides to confirm he would not be seeking reelection, was one of the few not to cite difficulties within Congress as a reason for leaving.

Fellow Ohioan Brad Wenstrup will not attempt to keep his seat at the next election. “The environment is different than maybe when I started,” he said. “There are some people that come to really put their heads down and work and work hard and perform… and there’s others that want to be more performers than producers.”

Retirements are not guaranteed to reduce the Republican majority drastically and the Wall Street Journal reports there were 12 representatives, six from each side, already looking for the road leading out of Washington, D.C, confirmed in November alone. In all, 37 people are currently not like to be part of the next Congress.

The flurry of announcements, bitterness over McCarthy’s speakership and departure and deep divisions over key policies are unlikely to improve the party mood in the coming weeks and months.