A storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to bring heavy rain and flash flood risks to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast this week.
The storm wasn’t strong enough as of midday Tuesday to warrant an official storm name, but AccuWeather experts said it’s possible that could change and on Monday gave the storm a “medium chance” of earning a name. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) New Orleans/Baton Rouge office gave the storm a 30 percent chance of turning into a tropical system.
For now, the storm is moving steadily north in the western Gulf of Mexico. Experts say it’s possible that some of the moisture gathering around Hurricane Lidia, which is expected to soon begin battering Mexico’s west coast, could shift east and add to the storm developing in the Gulf.
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Parts of south Texas are expected to get a few inches of rainfall Tuesday night and early Wednesday, according to a Tuesday morning NWS forecast. Intense rainfall in some areas could elevate the potential for flash flooding, the alert said.
After passing through south Texas, the storm is expected to impact the central Gulf Coast before shifting to the Southeastern U.S. on Wednesday, though the NWS said it’s possible the heaviest rainfall may remain offshore. The central Gulf Coast, southern Alabama and Georgia are forecast to receive the brunt of the rainfall between Wednesday and Thursday, with a few inches and locally excessive rainfall expected in those areas.
Several NWS local offices posted warnings about the approaching weather on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday.
In Brownsville, Texas, NWS experts said the highest risk for flash flooding will likely be Tuesday night. Flash flooding is “especially” a concern for locations that reported rainfall last week.
Rain chances will increase late this afternoon and tonight, before decreasing from west to east on Wednesday. Locally heavy rain may result in isolated flash flooding, especially over areas that have already received beneficial rain from last week’s event. #rgvwx pic.twitter.com/6YabbUUWcJ
— NWS Brownsville (@NWSBrownsville) October 10, 2023
In New Orleans, the rain is forecast to begin on Wednesday and become moderate to heavy at times, according to local NWS forecasters. The coast will experience the greatest amount of rainfall and will have a minor risk of flooding.
🌧️ Rain: Expected to begin early Wednesday, spreading east and becoming moderate to heavy at times. Greatest totals will be along the coast with some minor flooding potential – but for most, it’ll be beneficial. #lawx #mswx (2/5) pic.twitter.com/8L1D3pAD62
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) October 10, 2023
Weather experts in Mobile, Alabama, said the storm will bring beneficial rain to the area, with a limited risk of flooding.
Beneficial rains are forecast with this system. There is potential for rainfall amounts of 1-3″ w/ locally higher totals over much of the area, especially east of I-65 & near the coast. The flooding potential looks quite limited but cannot be ruled out (esp. near the coast). pic.twitter.com/E9s8SqHEzQ
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) October 10, 2023
Most of southern Alabama is experiencing moderate to extreme drought, according to a map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor on October 5. A Texas drought map last updated on October 3 shows a significant portion of southern Texas is also experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, as is much of Louisiana.
Though rainfall is often interpreted as a fast solution to drought, it’s not the only environmental factor at play. Experts with the U.S. Drought Monitor also evaluate snowpack, humidity, soil moisture and groundwater, among other variables, while assessing drought conditions.
“A few inches of rain will certainly help but may not be enough to offset the long-term issues that have been developing,” Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center told Newsweek by email on Tuesday.