Joe Biden and Donald Trump remain locked in a closely fought battle to win the popular vote in November’s presidential election according to a series of recent polls, though the Republican firebrand enjoys an advantage in key swing states.
Trump and Biden look set for a rematch of the 2020 election after both became their respective parties’ presumptive presidential nominees following a series of primary victories in March.
Following the 2020 election, after which Trump refused to concede defeat to Biden despite his claims of electoral fraud being dismissed in court, the 2024 contest is widely expected to be exceptionally bitter. In recent months, both Biden and Trump have accused the other of representing a threat to American democracy.
An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.
Between March 29 and 31, 1,092 likely voters were polled by The Trafalgar Group, a pollster that has been criticized for its generally GOP-leaning results and opaque methods. It gave Trump a roughly three-point lead with the former president on 43.1 percent of the vote against 39.8 percent for Biden.
However. two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger. Morning Consult polled 6,018 registered voters between March 29 and 31, putting Biden at 44 percent against 42 percent for Trump.
A Big Village poll of 1,477 likely voters conducted over the same time period had Biden at 41.9 percent against 39.7 percent for Trump.
A series of polls conducted in seven swing states by The Wall Street Journal between March 17 and 24 put Trump ahead in six, with the presidential rivals tied in the seventh.
Spencer Platt/Chip Somodevilla/GETTY
In North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, the survey found Trump had a lead of six points, five points and four points respectively.
Pennsylvania and Georgia were closer, with Trump having leads of three and one point respectively. The two candidates were tied in Wisconsin with 46 percent apiece. In each of the seven states, 600 registered voters were polled.
A separate Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted between March 20 and 31gave Trump a 10-point lead over Biden in Pennsylvania, with the Republican at 48 percent against 38 percent for the incumbent. The survey also found both Biden and Trump were unpopular, with 57 percent holding the president in a negative light against 60 percent for his GOP challenger.
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Joe Biden and Donald Trump presidential campaigns by email at 6 a.m. ET on Friday. This article will be updated if either campaign decides to comment.
According to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden’s odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February. At the beginning of this month. the website gave Biden a 44 percent chance of victory against 47 percent for Trump, a big improvement from February 25 when the Republican was given a 54 percent chance versus 33 percent for Biden.
Trump’s bid for a second White House term could be complicated by the four criminal trials he is due to face. The presumptive Republican nominee has been accused of facilitating the payment of hush money to a pornographic actress, mishandling classified documents and breaking the law while attempting to overturn the 2020 election result, both nationwide and in the state of Georgia specifically. He has pled not guilty to all charges and says the allegations against him are politically motivated.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.