The rise of drone swarms is set to transform any future conflict between the U.S. and China, an expert has told Newsweek.
“It’s clear that drones would play a large role in any U.S.-China conflict. First and foremost, they would play a major role in intelligence and surveillance—locating targets. It’s true that both sides already have good surveillance capabilities using space satellites, but these capabilities would add still more capability,” Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Washington think-tank Defense Priorities, told Newsweek in an interview.
This evolving scenario underscores a critical reality: drone technology is not just an emerging tool, but a fundamental shift in military power and strategy dynamics.
China, in a bid to bolster its military capabilities, has been actively investing in and advancing drone technology, a trend that has gained momentum since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This strategic move is aimed at making the deployment of drones more cost-effective and efficient. China’s drone technology has been deployed by both Russia and China, tipping the balance in favor of small and asymmetric weapon systems like drones.
Goldstein believes China will leverage its drone-manufacturing capability during a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
“In a Taiwan scenario, I would expect drones to be used in large numbers for surveillance, to confuse air defenses, and also for attack purposes. The People’s Liberation Army [PLA] may also value drones for mine and obstacle clearance, as well as for resupply of airborne and heliborne forces,” Goldstein told Newsweek.
The global market for military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is set to continue to grow over the coming decade.
The global military UAV market has been forecast to grow from a value of $10.927 billion in 2023 to $17.963 billion in 2033, an annual growth of 5.10 percent, according to market research firm Research And Markets.
Meanwhile, Chinese scientists claim to have developed a new type of drone that can split to form a drone swarm.
“Each of these drones has only one blade but can hover and move freely like a regular drone. They can communicate with each other and each could play a specific role—such as command, reconnaissance, tracking and even launching an attack—while collaborating to complete a mission,” Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post reported on March 19.
Though drone swarm technology has been around for some time now in a limited way, the technical challenges posed by a lack of coordination between drones have reportedly been overcome by Chinese experts. The reported advancement in drone technology has been attributed to Professor Shi Zhiwei from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, according to SCMP.
Newsweek contacted China’s Embassy in Washington D.C. for comment.
Shi and his team of researchers suggested in peer-reviewed research published last month that “combined design and air-separation technology provides the possibility to further enhance the effectiveness of drone use.”
Shi’s team took inspiration to develop the swarm technology from natural aerodynamic capabilities in a maple seed.
“Shi’s team says maple seed-inspired drones could be taken from the laboratory to production lines in China to revolutionize future warfare. However, the key is to assemble them to achieve efficient long-distance flight,” SCMP has reported.
Zachary Kallenborn, an adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argued in a recent article that there is a global race to develop drone swarms.
“Increasingly, states are integrating multiple drones into drone swarms, which communicate and collaborate to accomplish shared objectives. At least eleven states have announced drone swarm programs—from Armenia and China to South Korea and the United States.”
China OUT/AFP via Getty
“In May 2021, Israel used Elbit Systems’ Legion-X drone swarm in combat against Hamas, with the drones searching for targets and relaying information to the Israel Defense Forces,” Kallenborn wrote for Modern War Institute, a think tank at U.S. military academy West Point.
Goldstein believes a specific use case for drone swarms could be deployed in the Taiwan Strait context.
“The swarms would be employed to maximally confuse air defenses, including by inducing them to quickly expend all their munitions on false targets. If the PLA could gain command of the air over Taiwan with such swarm tactics, this would enable the success of either airborne/heliborne also follow-on amphibious attacks to succeed,” Goldstein told Newsweek.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.