Recent comments by Donald Trump on abortion that have angered some evangelical Christians are unlikely to cost him their votes in November’s presidential election, according to a number of experts on politics and theology.
In a video posted to his Truth Social website on Wednesday, Trump again took credit for ending Roe v. Wade, but then argued abortion access should be “up to the states,” which would be free to pursue “different” policies. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee also criticized an Arizona Supreme Court ruling that reapplied an 1864 law outlawing abortion in nearly all cases, which he said went “too far” and would “be straightened out.”
Abortion access has become a politically troublesome issue for Republicans since the Supreme Court overturned Roe in June 2022. The GOP’s underperformance in the November 2022 midterm elections, when a widely anticipated “red wave” failed to arrive, was widely linked to the backlash over this issue.
Trump’s video on Wednesday sparked an angry response from some Christian conservative commentators, with Ben Zeisloft, editor of The Republic Sentinel, saying, “I will not vote for Donald Trump unless something very drastic changes,” adding that Trump “refuses to do his duty under King Jesus and use his federal power to protect all humans under his jurisdiction.”
However speaking to Newsweek, Richard Flory, an expert on evangelical Christianity who heads the University of South California’s Center for Religion and Civic Culture, argued in practice the move is unlikely to cost Trump many evangelical votes.
He said: “No matter what Trump says, about anything, the vast majority of evangelicals are going to vote for Trump … I see those claims that Trump won’t get their vote as empty threats; no matter what Trump says, they’re going to interpret it so that it makes themselves feel better about voting for him, and then cast their ballots for him.
“In reality, who else are they going to vote for … Given their ideological commitments, they simply do not have an option other than voting for Trump or abstaining from voting for President—there isn’t another candidate that they could conceive of voting for. That said, Trump may not get the 80 percent of evangelicals he got in 2016, but regardless, the majority will vote for Trump no matter what he says, or does.”
Flory added: “Trump though will likely moderate his language around abortion just enough to make evangelicals feel somewhat more comfortable with voting for him—at least enough that they can create some sort of moral rationale to justify their vote for him…we know this about Trump, he and the truth are complete strangers and evangelicals don’t seem to have any problem with that.”
A similar view was expressed to Newsweek by Thomas Whalen, expert in American politics who teaches at Boston University.
Asked about the impact of Trump’s comments on evangelical voters, Whalen replied: “As Richard Gere told the late great Louis Gossett Jr. in An Officer and a Gentleman, ‘I got nowhere elsewhere to go.’
“Sure, Christian Evangelicals are upset, but I doubt they’ll switch their votes in the fall to the Democrats, who many of them already feel are satanic pedophiles. File under a tempest in the GOP teapot.”
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Heath Brown, associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, agreed that the direct electoral impact of Trump’s abortion comments is likely to be minimal but argued it could play a big role in whom he selects as a prospective vice president.
Brown said: “I suspect the immediate impact of this won’t be with voters. Instead, I think the reaction to Trump’s statement on abortion rights will impact his choice of running mate.
“Contenders, like Senator [JD] Vance and Governor [Kristi] Noem, will increasingly have to be judged with attention to their past statements on abortion, maybe more so than any other issue. Abortion rights are going to be the key social issue in the 2024 election.”
Newsweek contacted representatives of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign via email outside of typical office hours. This article will be updated if they decide to comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.