Israel’s Chances of Winning Eurovision Surge

Despite the protests against Israel competing at the Eurovision Song Contest this year, they are now the second favorite to win the competition behind Croatia.

Eden Golan is Israel’s 2024 Eurovision contestant, whose inclusion in the event has sparked controversy amid Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza. According to the Associated Press, more than 1 million civilians have sheltered in the Palestinian city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip since the war broke out in October after Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel.

Golan sang her song “Hurricane” on Thursday at the Eurovision Song Contest’s Jury Show at the host city’s Malmö Arena. On the day, thousands of protesters— including climate activist Greta Thunberg—walked through the streets of Malmö calling for Israel to be removed from the competition. Despite the backlash, Golan’s performance qualified for the final. Newsweek messaged Golan via Instagram for comment on Friday.

The protests don’t seem to have negatively affected Golan’s chances in the competition as Israel’s Eurovision 2024 odds have been slashed from 50/1 to 3/1 after Semi-Final 2. This has seen the country jump from eighth place to second favorite to win Saturday’s grand finale.

Popular British bookmakers Ladbrokes and PaddyPower both have Israel among the favorites to win the competition.

According to Oddschecker, Israel’s chances of winning Eurovision have improved from 2 percent to 25 percent, but Baby Lasagna from Croatia remains the favorite to win.

Israel has been the most popular bet on Oddschecker to win Saturday’s grand final since Semi-Final 2 started, amassing 31 percent of the total bets. That is more than Croatia; during the same period, the country gained only 18 percent of the bet share on Oddschecker.

“Over the past 12 hours on Oddschecker, we’ve seen an unparalleled level of support come in for Israel to win Saturday’s Eurovision final. Considered rank outsiders at 50/1 heading into Thursday’s Semi-Final 2, Israel’s chances have improved drastically on Oddschecker, now standing as the 3/1 second-favourites,” Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman said in a statement.

“Since the Semi-Final 2 started, Israel are by far the most popular bet to win on Oddschecker, amassing 31 percent of all bets placed, compared to just 18 percent for the favourites, Croatia,” Blackman added.

There has been a growing campaign over recent months to bar Israel from the competition over its ongoing military campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Gaza health officials said more than 34,500 Palestinians have been killed and more than 70,000 wounded in the Gaza Strip since the war began, the Associated Press reported. Hamas’ initial attack on October 7 killed about 1,200 people and resulted in almost 250 hostages being taken.

Videos posted on X, formerly Twitter, of Golan’s performance on Thursday have shown disgruntled members of the crowd booing and chanting “free Palestine” during her performance. Golan hasn’t let that deter her as, speaking after the show, she said she was “overwhelmed with emotions.”

“It is truly such an honour to be here on stage, representing [Israel] with pride. I’m so grateful for everyone who voted and took part in supporting us, and me,” Golan said.

Before the semi-final, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his support for Golan in a video that was posted to X.

“Eden, I want to wish you success,” Netanyahu said in Hebrew. “You know what? You’ve already succeeded—because you are not only competing in Eurovision in a proud and very impressive way, you are successfully facing an ugly wave of antisemitism—and you are standing up to it and representing the State of Israel with great honour. So what a blessing, and know that when people yell ‘boo’ at you, we shout, ‘Hooray.'”