J.D. Vance’s Odds Are Soaring

J.D. Vance has seen his chances of being named Donald Trump’s running mate double in a week, according to the prediction market platform Polymarket.

While speculation mounts as to whom the former president will pick to join him in his race back to the White House, the site—which allows users to trade money on the outcome of real-world events—shows that Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, has recently gone from a 6 percent chance to a 13 percent chance of being the Republican Party’s vice-presidential nominee.

Vance has been a vocal critic of President Joe Biden’s policies on the economy, immigration and Ukraine. He voted against a bill to provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine and has suggested Europe do more to defend itself rather than rely on the U.S.

Vance was elected to the senate in 2022 after a career as a venture capitalist. He is also the author of Hillbilly Elegy, a 2016 memoir based on his upbringing in a working-class family that reflected on the social, economic and cultural pressures facing the Appalachian community he grew up in. It was well received and later adapted into a film of the same name.

Vance’s early public commentary included sharp criticism of then-presidential candidate Trump, in which he voiced skepticism about Trump’s commitment to the working class and questioned his suitability for the role of president. However, Vance’s views evolved significantly as Trump’s presidency unfolded, aligning more closely with Trump’s policies and political style. By the time Vance ran for the Senate, he had not only embraced many of Trump’s policies but also sought and received Trump’s endorsement during his campaign.

The senator’s legislative focus has been on economic issues, particularly those affecting industrial and rural communities, and his political journey from a critic to a supporter of Trump highlights a broader shift within the Republican Party. Newsweek has contacted a spokesperson for Vance for comment by email.

According to the betting-odds data site Oddspedia, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott remains the favorite to be Trump’s running mate, with three-to-one odds. Scott ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination, dropping out before any primaries began. Fellow former candidate Doug Burgum has nine-to-two odds, alongside former Democratic congresswoman turned Fox News commentator Tulsi Gabbard.

The site has Vance at odds of 10 to one, the same as New York Representative Elise Stefanik, whose profile has risen since she questioned university presidents on the issue of antisemitism on campuses.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem had been widely seen as a favorite, but her odds fell sharply after she discussed in her new book fatally shooting her 14-month-old dog, Cricket, because it was aggressive and “untrainable.”

In late April, Noem had a 10 percent chance of being Trump’s VP pick, according to Polymarket, but that fell to 2 percent after the story broke.