President Joe Biden is enjoying his biggest poll lead over former President Donald Trump so far in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, with under six months to the presidential election.
A new Quinnipiac University poll found Biden leading in Wisconsin with 50 percent support to his Republican opponent’s 44 percent, among the 1,447 registered voters surveyed.
That represents a lead of 6 percent in a head-to-head with Trump, but the Quinnipiac poll also found that Biden’s lead in the state narrows when other presidential candidates are included. Newsweek has reached out to the Trump and Biden campaigns via email for comment.
Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images
A Data Orbital poll has found that Trump is trailing Biden in the battleground state of Arizona for the first time in six months.
Biden won Wisconsin in 2020, and victory there was crucial in setting him on the path to the White House. The state was also essential to Trump’s election victory in 2016 and will be hotly contested this year.
The Quinnipiac poll also found that Trump and Biden were neck-and-neck when Green Party and independent candidates were included.
Forty percent of registered voters said they would back Biden; 39 percent supported Trump; and 12 percent expressed support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
A further 4 percent said they would vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 1 percent supported independent candidate Cornel West.
The poll was conducted from May 2 to 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent.
Biden’s support in the head-to-head matchup is his biggest lead over Trump in Wisconsin in 2024 polling, according to polls aggregated since April by tracker FiveThirtyEight.
An Emerson College poll among 1,000 registered voters from April 25 to 29 showed Trump leading in Wisconsin with 52 percent to Biden’s 48 percent in a two-way matchup.
When Kennedy, Stein, and West were included, the Emerson College poll found Trump leading with 45 percent to Biden’s 40 percent.
A YouGov/CBS News poll conducted from April 19 to 25 among 1,226 likely voters showed Trump with 50 percent to Biden’s 49 percent in a head-to-head race; a lead of just 1 percent for the former president.
When Stein was included in the YouGov/CBS News poll, Trump led with 48 percent, Biden had 44 percent support, and Stein garnered 8 percent.
The earliest poll cited by FiveThirtyEight showed a dead heat in Wisconsin, with Biden and Trump recording 48 percent support. That poll was carried out by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research on behalf of Fox News and it surveyed 1,198 registered voters from April 11 to 16.
Though the Quinnipiac poll may be good news for Biden, the race in Wisconsin looks set to remain very close. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average gave Trump a lead of 1.5 percent over the president as of Wednesday.
Trump won an upset victory in Wisconsin in 2016, carrying the state by less than 1 percent. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin with 49.4 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.8. Democrats had won all seven previous presidential elections in Wisconsin up to 2016.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.