President Joe Biden is gaining a bit of ground on former President Donald Trump in Florida ahead of the November presidential election, according to a new poll.
Biden and Trump are expected to face off in November, as both candidates have won enough delegates to secure their respective party’s presidential nominations, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election. But for the first time in decades, political analysts are saying Florida may not be viewed as one of the states to determine the outcome of the election.
Florida was viewed as the nation’s largest swing state for decades, breaking for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before flipping to Trump, a Republican, in 2016. In 2020, as many other swing states flipped by Trump shifted back to Biden, a Democrat, Trump still carried Florida by about 3.3 percentage points.
A new poll released this week by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) found that Trump continues to hold a lead in the state, but Biden has made some progress.
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The change is largely reflective of national trends, which have seen Trump’s lead narrow in recent polls.
Fifty percent of respondents said they are planning to support Trump in November, while 42 percent are backing Biden, according to the poll, which surveyed 865 adults from April 15 to 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The same poll in November and found Trump with a slightly larger lead as 49 percent said they planned to back Trump to 39 percent for Biden.
Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Experts have pointed to Republican gains among Hispanic voters near Miami and the arrival of more conservative transplants from the Northeast and Midwest for the Republicans’ surge in the state, which has seen more socially conservative legislation on matters such as abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
Still, Democrats are hoping that abortion could make a difference in the state.
In November, Floridians will vote on a ballot measure about whether to amend the state’s Constitution to protect abortion access. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have seen victories across the country, with solidly Republican states like Kansas voting to protect abortion rights.
Democrats view this as a chance to link Republicans to potentially unpopular anti-abortion policies ahead of November. Trump, however, has sought to reach a more moderate position on abortion, recently saying the decision should be determined by states, and criticizing a ban in Arizona.
Trump still viewed as favorite in Florida
While Biden has made some gains—roughly a 2-point shift since November—Republicans are still seen as having an advantage in the state, where they have been several positive indicators since 2020.
In March, Florida Republicans secured a milestone with the largest voter registration advantage for either major party in the state in nearly 40 years. The GOP lead grew to 851,417 voters, the largest gap for either party since 1988.
Obama this month shared a map of Democratic priorities to X, formerly Twitter. The map featured states that are expected to be close in the presidential race and states like Montana and Ohio that have competitive Senate races.
The map, however, did not show Florida as being a priority, despite it having a Senate race and potentially several competitive House races in 2024.
The Cook Political Report classifies Florida as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is not considered competitive but has “the potential to become engaged.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.