Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.
Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties’ presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.
Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.
While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden’s favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.
Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.
In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.
Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.
However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden’s 43 percent.
Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.
Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was “far too close to call.”
He said: “There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
“These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states.”
He continued: “By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
“We just can’t know the outcome at this great distance in time.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.