President Joe Biden is preferred to Donald Trump among voters who don’t like either of the two main candidates in the 2024 election, according to a poll.
A University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) national survey of likely voters found that while Trump is narrowly ahead of Biden (47 percent to 45 percent) overall, the Democratic incumbent has a substantial lead over the Republican (43 percent to 30 percent) with so-called “double-haters” who are not keen supporters of either candidate.
The poll results are the latest sign that voters in the U.S. are far from enthusiastic about the 2024 election being a rematch of the 2020 race, with Biden and Trump facing concerns about their age as they both seek a second term in office.
Biden’s reelection campaign has long faced suggestions he should not seek a second term due to his at times poor approval rating, with Trump also facing the prospect of being a convicted felon in at least one criminal case by the time November’s election comes around.
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The poll shows that Biden has an overall favorability rating of 39 percent, with Trump slightly ahead on 43 percent favorability.
“Voters across the board don’t seem to be huge fans of any of these candidates, even within their own parties,” Michael Binder, a professor of political science at the University of North Florida, said while sharing the results.
“In fact, a substantial portion—15 percent—said they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump.
“It’s worth nothing that only 11 percent of these double-haters said they were voting for a third candidate, with 43 percent indicating they would vote for Biden, and 30 percent going to Trump.”
When likely voters were asked if they are enthusiastic about November’s election, the results were an almost even three-way split between respondents who said they were “not at all” enthusiastic (32 percent), those who were “somewhat” enthusiastic (33 percent), and 33 percent said they were “very” enthusiastic.
“It’s no surprise that people aren’t particularly excited about the election, given the low favorability of the candidates,” Binder said.
“Enthusiasm is highest among 2024 Trump voters and, unsurprisingly, lowest among third-party and undecided voters. A whopping 40 percent of self-reported Biden voters in 2024 are not at all enthusiastic about voting for him—which could lead to a turnout problem for Democrats in the fall.”
Biden’s and Trump’s offices have been contacted for comment via email.
The survey was conducted amid Trump’s trial in New York, where he has pleaded not guilty to 34 falsifying business records charges in relation to “hush money” he arranged his former lawyer Michael Cohen to pay adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep an alleged affair she had with Trump secret in the run-up to the 2016 election.
According to the results, more than two-thirds (67 percent) of likely voters in the overall sample said Trump getting convicted in the New York trial would not alter their vote come November. Nearly a quarter (24 percent) said they’d be less likely to vote for Trump, with 7 percent saying they would be more likely.
“A sizable majority said a criminal conviction for Trump wouldn’t affect their vote, which makes sense for folks who have their minds made up,” Binder said. “What could dramatically impact the election is the 9 percent of Trump voters who said they’d be less likely to vote for him if he’s convicted.”
The survey of 745 likely voters was conducted from April 8-20, 2024. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.