Representative Dean Phillips is mulling a potential 2024 run against President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination next year.
“I haven’t ruled it out,” Phillips told strategist Steve Schmidt on Monday’s episode of The Warning with Steve Schmidt podcast. “I think it’s a steep slope. I think there are people who are more proximate, better prepared to campaign with [the] national organization, with national name recognition, which I do not possess.”
“But I do feel strongly, and I have a conviction that it’s important for democracy to have choices to have competition, particularly in light of what I’m reading the polling the data and what I’m sensing in my own intuition,” the Minnesota Republican said. “And I’m concerned, I’m concerned that there is no alternative.”
Thus far, Biden has been the frontrunner in the Democratic primary polls. Running for a second term against long-shot candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, the 80-year-old incumbent has maintained a nearly 50-percentage point advantage over his competition.
But Biden’s lead shrinks down to single digits against potential Republican candidates, like former President Donald Trump. There are also Democratic fears that a third-party member, like Green Party candidate Cornel West, could split votes and make 2024 a three-way race that could hurt Biden’s re-election chances. Kennedy has also recently signaled he is considering running as a Libertarian for a better shot at beating Biden.
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Biden’s Chances in the Primaries
As of Sunday, Biden leads Kennedy 63.7 percent to 14.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Democratic primary tracker. Although it’s a slight dip from the 66-67 percent advantage Biden held earlier this month, the president is still benefitting from a 49-point lead.
Biden’s RealClearPolitics average of 51 is also showing an easy primary win for the incumbent. The pollsters show him with 65 percent support, while Kennedy is being backed by 14.3 percent of primary voters and Williamson is seeing 5 percent support.
Even though Biden’s Democratic challengers have been unable to pose a real threat to his chances of winning the party nomination, Phillips said he believes there is still time for a strong Democratic candidate to enter the race and revealed that he is encouraging people who he thinks would be able to run a “great campaign” to do so.
“I recognize there’d be laughter, there’d be distaste, there would be [discussion] amongst many. But I also have the sense that the country is begging for alternatives, whether that’s me, whether it’s somebody else,” the congressman said.
Phillips added that should he run and be elected the next president of the United States, he would appoint a bipartisan cabinet and host monthly dinners for everyday Americans at the White House so that people could be better represented by their government.
Noting that “time will tell” whether or not he does make an official presidential bid, he told Schmidt, “I think it’s unlikely, but not impossible.”
Biden’s Chances in the General Election
Over the weekend, Kennedy told a voter that he was keeping his “options open” in terms of running as an independent candidate while accusing the Democratic National Committee of “trying to make sure that I can’t participate at all in the political process.”
Democrats worry that a third-party candidate in the general election could take votes away from Biden and help Trump win the White House.
“We’ve been very clear that third parties in close elections can be very dangerous and would almost certainly hurt the president,” Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the centrist Democratic group Third Way that’s coordinating efforts to stop bipartisan group No Labels from recruiting a moderate candidate for a third-party run, told The New York Times. “That would be true of a No Labels candidate and it would be true of RFK.”
Trump is currently leading the pack in the crowded GOP field, having maintained a double-digit lead over his Republican rivals since April, even though he has faced several legal setbacks, including four criminal indictments, and refused to participate in the primary debates against the other candidates.
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In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, Trump appears to hold a slight edge over the Democrat. A new poll released by ABC News/The Washington Post on Sunday showed Trump beating Biden with 51 percent to 42 percent, while the survey released by NBC News on the same day showed the two men tied at 46 percent support. Trump was also ahead by one point in a CBS News poll, two points in a Fox News poll, and four points in a Harvard/Harris poll, all from earlier this month.
Phillips said while there is no doubt he would throw all of his support behind Biden if the president were to secure the Democratic nomination, he believes that voters want a better choice between Biden, who will be 82 at the beginning of a second term, and Trump, who will be 78 by the time Election Day rolls around.
“Joe Biden always says, ‘Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.’ If it is Joe Biden against Donald Trump, my goodness, it’s a no-brainer,” he said. “I’ll do everything I can, everything I can to ensure that he stands the best chance to be reelected. There is no question the alternative is horrifying.”
“It’s important that somebody recognize that this is the time,” Phillips added. “Don’t wait till 2028. My goodness, serve your country now when we need you.”
At the same time, Biden is also facing low approval ratings that suggest a general election may be particularly difficult for his campaign. The ABC News poll found that 56 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the presidency.
“The thing that Biden is suffering from, unfortunately, right now is something he can’t change,” Phillips said. “There’s some wisdom in him that is quite remarkable and that I honor. But I also know what the country is asking for and how can you ignore the numbers you see in a country that prides itself on representational democracy?”