Kari Lake Faces ‘Disaster’ in Arizona

Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is up against a political “disaster” in Arizona after the state’s Supreme Court upheld a near-total abortion ban, political experts told Newsweek.

Arizona became the center of the national abortion debate on Tuesday when its high court upheld an 1864 law that bans all procedures except in cases when “it is necessary to save” the life of the mother. Those found guilty of violating the ban could face two to five years in state prison. Prior to Tuesday’s ruling, Arizona already had a 15-week abortion ban in place.

All eyes quickly shifted to the state’s most prominent Republicans, who scrambled to respond to the historic decision as their Democratic counterparts cited it as yet another example of the GOP’s plan to ban abortions across the country. Despite previously calling the near-total ban a “great law,” Lake released a statement publicly opposing the ruling and calling on state officials to find “an immediate commonsense solution that Arizonans can support.”

Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy at Arizona-based public affairs firm HighGround, told Newsweek that Lake’s response shows just how big of a “disaster” Tuesday’s ruling will be for Republicans.

“[Lake] is going to have a very difficult line to walk because electorally, it’s a difficult position for her to be in,” Bentz said. “Her most conservative base, her hardcore-right base will be celebrating today’s decision, and now that this is the playing field, any effort to reinstate abortion is going to be construed as pro-choice or construed as in favor of abortion.”

Newsweek has reached out to Lake’s campaign via email for comment.

“Navigating this issue is going to be very challenging moving forward for Kari Lake or any other of the Republican candidates,” he said.

Political consultant Jay Townsend agreed, stating, “Either way, Kari Lake is damaged by what the Arizona court did.”

Townsend told Newsweek that if anti-abortion advocates are able to get their referendum on the ballot, voters will show up and also vote for Lake’s Democratic opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego, while they’re at it. And even if it doesn’t make the ballot, “there will be a flood of anger drawing women to the polls to protest what they regard to be a draconian ruling.”

RealClearPolling averages from February show Lake trailing Gallego by over 4 percentage points. Although Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016, the state was instrumental to Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. In 2022, Arizona voters voted blue again, reelecting Senator Mark Kelly and putting Democrat Katie Hobbs into the governor’s office instead of Lake. The state also elected Democrat Adrian Fontes over MAGA-aligned state Senator Mark Fincham as secretary of state.

“Specific to Lake, she has an extensive record of extremist rhetoric and actions and this issue is just another data point for voters,” GOP strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek. “The real danger to Lake is the ballot initiative changes the make up of the electorate at the margins—driving more young voters, women voters, and voters who are simply exhausted from the extremism to polls.”

“In this environment, any time a Republican candidate for Senate is forced to talk about abortion, they lose votes,” Townsend added.

Abortion has become a woeful issue for Republicans. In the two years since the Supreme Court’s conservative majority overturned Roe v. Wade, ending federal access to abortion, the GOP has struggled to win elections that they had been expected to win as Democrats have rallied voters to the polls on the issue. The 2022 midterms saw the highest number of ballot measures on abortion in a single year, and every single state that put the issue on the ballot affirmed the right to the procedure.

Even voters in ruby-red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana have rejected GOP-led measures to limit abortion. Most recently, in Ohio—where Republicans control the offices of the governor, the secretary of state, the attorney general, and both chambers of the state legislature—voters backed a measure that would establish a constitutional “right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions.”

“We’ve seen in other states that efforts to limit abortion have been met was a lot of opposition, and Arizona is going to be no different,” Bentz said. “[The 2024 election] now has a strong likelihood of being the abortion election. It won’t be just choosing between Biden and Trump, but rather where your position lies on this abortion issue.”

A poll conducted by Emerson College last month found immigration to be the top voting issue for Arizonans, with 32 percent ranking it number one on their list, followed by 22 percent who said the economy and 11 percent who said housing affordability. Abortion was the sixth most important issue, with only 6 percent of Arizona voters identifying it as their top issue. But Bentz said that’s all about to change.

“Prior to [Tuesday], we really saw abortion as sort of a second or third tier [issue]. There were some passionate people with who it was the number one issue with, but it’s going to rise up the ranks,” he said.

Surveys also show that the overwhelming majority of Americans do not support a near-total abortion ban. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last week found that more than 8-in-10 voters say women who have abortions should not face penalties like fines or jail. In 2022, 6 out of 10 Arizona voters said they would favor guaranteeing access to legal abortion nationwide, according to AP VoteCast.

Bentz said Lake has already tried to make her Senate campaign much more palatable to independent and moderate voters in comparison to her bid for the governorship. Two years ago, Lake ran on a heavily MAGA-aligned campaign that centered on her support of former President Donald Trump and election denialism.

“In her race for governor, Kari Lake was much more vocal in support of her desire to ban abortions, desire to limit abortions, and as she’s run for the U.S. Senate, she’s sort of changed her tune a little bit on this topic,” Bentz said. “But, part of this was all precluded on the fact that the state was operating under a 15-week abortion ban… a much more tentative position for Republicans than this all-out basic territorial ban.”

“Where we are now, which is basically the most extreme version of banning abortion…is held by the smallest of opinion of the electorate,” he added. “This has no exception for rape or incest. It has no other exceptions, many of which we’ve even seen Republican candidates espouse in the past. It is the most extreme position and is now the law of the land in the state of Arizona. Unless something changes, it will be a big issue all the way from now till the election.”