Kevin McCarthy’s Deal With MAGA Leaves Successor Vulnerable

Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s deal with his conservative holdouts will loom over the fate of his successor, who remains unknown even three weeks after McCarthy was ousted as speaker of the House.

McCarthy had struggled to gain enough votes in January as the GOP’s razor-thin House majority repeatedly threatened his speaker bid more than a dozen of times. After a 15th round of voting, the California Republican had finally convinced enough of his detractors to back him, but their support was not without conditions.

As part of the deal he struck with his critics, McCarthy promised to give up some of his gavel powers through a series of House rule changes that included changing the motion to vacate so that it would be easier to fire a speaker.

Previously, half of House Republicans would have been needed to start the proceedings to unseat a speaker, but McCarthy agreed to changes that allowed just one member of Congress to call a vote to oust him; this is exactly how he ended up being pushed out earlier this month by Rep. Matt Gaetz. Because those rules are agreed upon at the beginning of each Congress, that modification to the motion to vacate will stand until the next Congress in January.

Michigan State Professor Ian Ostrander told Newsweek that, unlike the Senate, which considers itself a continuing body as different senators are up for reelection at different times, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs at the same time. Because of this, the House adopts new rules each Congress, and those remain in place for the entire year, unless they are amended.

“If the rules are not amended, the next Speaker of the House will have to struggle in the same way that McCarthy did,” Ostrander said.

John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna, agreed, telling Newsweek the motion to vacate “will continue to be a problem with any Republican Speaker.”

Ostrander said, to avoid McCarthy’s fate, the next speaker will have either to accommodate the demands and wishes of conservative hardliners or reach across the aisle to work with the Democrats.

“Neither plan is particularly stable as moderates may defect if the next speaker strays too far to the right while working with Democrats might cause the Republican caucus to further unravel,” Ostrander said.

Both those scenarios have already played out before the American public. In January, McCarthy faced fierce opposition from the right flank of his party. After he was ousted, those same members refused to allow another moderate to fill the vacancy. This gave Rep. Steve Scalise no choice but to step down as speaker designate so that Rep. Jim Jordan would be the nominee.

However, Jordan failed to win the gavel as centrist Republicans rebuked his bid, leaving the Ohio Republican without the necessary votes to become the next speaker. Since October 3, the House has remained without someone in the top post, leaving the chamber unable to legislate.

Ostrander said that some House Republicans have already argued that the rules should quickly be amended after a new Speaker is elected so that there’s a higher threshold to bring a motion to vacate, which could help the GOP avoid the same situation.

After McCarthy was ousted, a group of 45 House Republicans wrote a letter to GOP leadership, demanding the chamber change the rules. They said that they were “ashamed and embarrassed by what happened on the Floor this week.”

“The injustice we all witnessed cannot go unaddressed—lest we bear responsibility for the consequences that follow,” the October 5 letter read. “Our Conference must address fundamental changes to the structure of our majority to ensure success for the American people.”

American University’s Jim Thurber told Newsweek that, without a change, “it is likely another speaker will be ousted at any time, just like McCarthy.”

“Republicans cannot govern without a change in the rule which is currently a Faustian pact to achieve the speakership but without power,” Thurber said.