‘Last Chance To Reverse the Trend’

Japan’s population crisis has intensified according to government statistics which reveal child births fell for the eighth consecutive year to a new low in 2023.

Births were down by 5.1 percent to 758,631, remaining below the 800,000 mark since 2022, according to preliminary Japanese health ministry data released on Tuesday.

Projections by Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) suggest its population could decline by about 30 percent to 87 million by 2070, with seniors aged 65 or older making up 40 percent of the populace.

Such forecasts underscore Japan’s long-term challenges in maintaining its social infrastructure and economic vitality.

The worsening demographic profile prompted a senior government figure to raise the alarm that a solution must be found.

“The next six years or so until 2030, when the number of young people will rapidly decline, will be the last chance to reverse the trend.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters.

In 2022, Japan’s overall fertility rate stood at 1.26 percent, well below the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) standard of 2.1 required for a stable population.

The recent figures are far worse than projections by IPSS, which had not expected births to fall below 760,000 until 2035, Kyodo News has reported.

“In 2022, the number of newborns dipped below 800,000 for the first time since surveys began in 1899. The government previously had expected fewer than 815,000 births in 2027,” Newsweek noted earlier in 2023.

The population projection suggested that annual births could fall below half a million in 2059, IPSS said.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has recognized the severity of this demographic challenge, labeling it in January 2023 as “the biggest crisis Japan faces.”

“In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation’s economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy,” he added.

In response, late last year, Kishida announced a series of measures to support families with children, attempting to mitigate the social and economic impacts of a shrinking and aging population.

“A fall in the number of marriages is clearly followed by a drop in births,” said Kanako Amano, a senior researcher at the NLI Research Institute, according to Kyodo News.

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare plans to release updated population data, excluding foreign residents, possibly in June. The revised figure for 2022 showed a decrease to 770,747 births, a drop of approximately 30,000 from the initial estimate, Kyodo News reported. If the trend observed in 2023 continues, the number of births, excluding foreign nationals, could fall to around 730,000, the agency added.