Iceland is facing “an increased risk of an eruption” in the coming days, as magma accumulating in the Earth’s crust under the Reykjanes Peninsula reaches a comparable volume to when the last eruption occurred in the region, officials have warned.
In an update on Tuesday, the Icelandic Meteorological Office said that the land around a geothermal power plant at Svartsengi—which has been rising in recent months due to magma accumulation in a horizontal intrusion under the surface—had swelled by about two inches more than it was when a lava fissure opened up on December 18, and was rising by around two-tenths of an inch each day.
It added that GPS measurements suggested the reservoir “has reached a level comparable to the volume that led to the formation of the magma conduit and the subsequent eruption” before Christmas.
The horizontal intrusion—around 6 miles in diameter—has been building under the peninsula since November 10, and is thought to be channeling magma into a vertical intrusion—estimated to be around 9.3 miles long—near the coastal fishing town of Grindavik. It was along this vertical dike that magma reached the surface, causing last month’s eruption.
Micah Garen/Getty Images
Earlier in January, the Icelandic Met Office said the inflation of the horizontal intrusion had slowed, indicating that “magma pressure is rising” and “increasing the chances of new dike intrusion and also [a] volcanic eruption.”
When the last eruption occurred on December 18, the crustal uplift reduced by nearly 3 inches as pressure was released, having risen by nearly 14 inches since the nearby vertical magma intrusion formed. But it soon began rising again.
Officials warned that while the most likely site of another eruption was that of the fissure that had opened up near Grindavik, magma could propagate elsewhere and form a new potential eruption site.
The Icelandic Met Office said on Tuesday that seismic activity—which often exposes where magma is propagating—remained relatively low, and was primarily centered around the middle of the dike, but it has repeatedly cautioned that an eruption could occur with little warning.
Ben Edwards, an American volcanologist who has visited the Reykjanes Peninsula multiple times, previously told Newsweek that the December 18 eruption could mark the start of over a century of volcanic activity in the region.
His remarks came after a leading Icelandic volcanologist told Newsweek that after a dormant period, the activity leading up to the eruption could mark the start of an “intense” period of “rifting and volcanism” on the peninsula.
While Haraldur Sigurdsson, an emeritus professor of geophysics at the University of Rhode Island, expressed hopes following the eruption for a brief reprieve from volcanic activity, both he and Edwards noted that much of Iceland’s infrastructure—including the capital ReykjavÃk—is located in the region.
Icelandic officials evacuated the town of Grindavik early on, and have built earth walls and channels around it and the power plant at Svartsengi to divert any lava flows that might reach them. The December 18 eruption occurred in an uninhabited region of the peninsula.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.