The region of Iceland around the Svartsengi geothermal power plant “continues to inflate” as magma pools under the surface of the Earth’s crust, with officials warning that an eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula remains possible.
The area surrounding Svartsengi has been the site of several horizontal magma intrusions in recent years, but the Icelandic Meteorological Office said that since a burst of seismic activity on November 10, there has been “significant crustal uplift” in the region. It previously said that the reservoir of magma has been pushing the ground up by around a centimeter (nearly half an inch) a day.
While experts say that the horizontal intrusion causing the Earth’s crust to bend upwards around Svartsengi—around 6 miles in diameter—would be unlikely to directly cause an eruption on the surface, it is thought to be channeling magma into a vertical intrusion—estimated to be around 9.3 miles long—near the coastal fishing town of Grindavik, where an eruption is thought more likely.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office previously expressed uncertainty as to when and where an eruption may occur after a decline in the number and severity of earthquakes around the vertical magma dike. While it is still anticipated to be the most likely area of eruption, officials have not been able to discount the possibility that magma propagates elsewhere in the region.
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In an update on Wednesday, the agency said that magma “continues to accumulate around Svartsengi,” though the rate of crustal uplift has decreased somewhat since last week but was still greater than before November 10. This, it said, means “further dikes or an eruption remain possible.”
“If another dike forms it is considered to be likeliest that it would follow the same path as the November 10 dike,” it added, assessing the most likely location for an eruption along the dike to be north of Grindavik, near the Hagafell mountain, where seismic activity remains strongest.
Were enough pressure to build, magma could reach the surface, with an eruption bringing the potential for localized ash and lava flows.
In recent weeks, authorities in Iceland have built earth walls, along with conduits and canals, around Grindavik and Svartsengi, in a bid to direct lava away from buildings in the event of an eruption. Grindavik’s population of nearly 4,000 were also evacuated after cracks appeared in the ground.
Between 1,500 and 1,800 earthquakes a day were being recorded from November 10 for nearly two weeks, before dropping to the low hundreds. Between 200-300 earthquakes have been registered a day on Monday and Tuesday, while the Icelandic Meteorological Office said as of 6:15 a.m. ET on Wednesday there had so far been a hundred that day.
A sudden shift in the North American tectonic plate away from the Eurasian plate is thought to have allowed magma to suddenly push upwards through a rift that runs between the two of them under Iceland, creating the swell in the Earth’s crust.
One Icelandic volcanologist previously told Newsweek that while the volcanic episode that began on November 10 may have ended, it could mark the start of an “intense” period of tectonic activity based on historic trends.
“We know that this is not the end of activity on the Reykjanes peninsula,” Haraldur Sigurdsson, emeritus professor of geophysics at the University of Rhode Island, said, noting that much of Iceland’s infrastructure—including the capital, ReykjavÃk—was located in the region.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.