Russia currently lacks the troops to capture or encircle Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, according to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.
This is despite Russian forces launching a two-pronged attack into Kharkiv Oblast on Friday which the ISW said made “significant tactical gains.”
The Russian military has been advancing gradually over the past few months in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which is partly under Moscow’s control and was formally annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2022. Ukraine received a major boost in April when Congress passed a foreign aid package containing an additional $60.84 billion for Kyiv which was held up for months by opposition from Republican hardliners in the House of Representatives.
Friday saw Russian troops launch two limited attacks into Kharkiv Oblast, one to the immediate north of Kharkiv itself and one further east near Vovchansk. However, according to the ISW, fears that Moscow will attempt to seize Kharkiv are likely misplaced and Russian commanders are instead trying to draw Ukrainian troops away from the Donbas and other regions in the east.
The think tank said: “Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and material from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine…
“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so. A Russian effort to seize Kharkhiv City would require long drives across open terrain on a scale that Russian forces have not conducted since the start of the full-scale invasion.”
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In particular, the ISW noted the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate estimates Russia currently has around 35,000 troops stationed on the border of Kharkiv Oblast, substantially less than the roughly 300,000 a Russian opposition news publication suggested would be needed to take the city of Kharkiv.
It said: “The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces likely also lacks the quantity of personnel required to conduct an operation as ambitious as the seizure of Kharkiv City successfully.
“Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported in March 2024, citing a Kremlin source, that the Russian military assesses that it needs 300,000 additional personnel (roughly 60 percent of the approximately 510,000 personnel Russian forces currently have in Ukraine) in order to launch an operation to encircle Kharkiv City…
“Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on May 2 that Russian forces have currently concentrated roughly 35,000 personnel in the international border area and plan to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel in this area.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian ministries of defense for comment by email.
On Thursday, the German government announced it had purchased three American-made M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, commonly known as HIMARS, which will be given to Ukraine.
Speaking after a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said: “In cooperation with the Americans, we will purchase three HIMARS launchers for Ukraine.
“They will come from the U.S. Armed Forces and will be paid for by us.”
Ukraine has been striking back using unmanned drones to hit oil refineries and other targets in Russia and ships from Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine estimated on Friday that its maritime drones have caused $500 million in damage to the Black Sea Fleet during attacks that sunk or damaged a number of vessels.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.