NATO Ally Warns Russia Could Threaten Bloc’s Security Within 3 Years

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas predicted that NATO has three to five years to brace for a severe military threat to eastern Europe posed by Russia.

In an exclusive interview published by British newspaper The Times on Monday, Kallas warned that Russia will likely look to ready its forces along its border with NATO members following a ceasefire or pause in its war against Ukraine. The Estonian leader’s assessment follows recent military gains by Russia along the front lines in eastern Ukraine as the war heads toward its two-year mark next month.

Estonia is one of three members of the Western bloc sharing a border with Russia, and the country’s Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) found in a recent security assessment that Tallinn’s military, alongside fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania, is considered the “most vulnerable part of NATO” by the Kremlin. Several European countries have taken steps to bolster their defense capabilities since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, fearing that Moscow’s aggression could spill into other parts of eastern Europe.

“Our intelligence estimates it to be three to five years, and that very much depends on how we manage our unity and keep our posture regarding Ukraine,” Kallas told The Times, referring to the VLA’s report released in December.

“Because what Russia wants is a pause, and this pause is to gather its resources and strength,” she continued. “Weakness provokes aggressors, so weakness provokes Russia.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with Kallas on Thursday that any pause on the battlefield would “play into [Russia’s] hands,” adding that a move like that “might crush [Kyiv] afterward.” The Ukrainian leader has continuously dismissed the idea of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Moscow, and said last week that allowing even a short-term pause would give Russia the chance to bolster its defenses and launch an even more powerful attack on Ukraine.

The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) released a report in November, which gave the NATO alliance an estimated five to nine years to prepare for a war against Russia. Russian foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the report in a post to Telegram on Monday as the kind of predictions that you could find in a “horoscope.”

Kallas also warned during her conversation with The Times that unity between NATO members is becoming “harder” as the war in Ukraine drags on. Several Western allies have shown signs “war fatigue,” including the United States, which said at the start of the new year that Washington does not plan to support Kyiv’s military at the same level as it has since 2022.

“And we have a year of elections in different countries and so this is becoming more and more difficult,” Kallas said, referring to the U.S. presidential election and the impact of a potential second term for ex-President Donald Trump regarding the NATO alliance.

“But I think it’s the obligation of the leaders to keep on explaining why a Russian victory [in Ukraine] is dangerous not only for European security but for the security of the whole world, because if aggression pays off somewhere, it serves as an invitation to use it elsewhere,” she added, according to The Times report.

Kallas’ warnings were followed by pleading from Zelensky on Tuesday during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, who urged Western leaders to tighten their sanctions against the Kremlin to ensure Moscow does not win the war.

“In fact, Putin embodies war,” Zelensky said, according to Reuters’ report on the forum. “He will not change … We must change. We all must change to the extent that the madness that resides in this man’s head or any other aggressor’s head will not prevail.”

Newsweek reached out to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and NATO’s press office via email for comment on Tuesday.