Patrick Mahomes Is Even More Essential in Light of New Chiefs Numbers

During the NFL season, just about everything that the Kansas City Chiefs do comes down to Patrick Mahomes. Even during the 2023 regular season, which saw the club’s offense struggle while the defense stepped up, No. 15 proved to be the key player. Whether you needed a moment of magic during the regular season or had to execute with the Lombardi Trophy on the line, he was your man.

Well, it seems like that trend is only set to continue during the NFL offseason. Given the way the Chris Jones-L’Jarius Sneed situation is unfolding, it seems like Mahomes will be at the heart of everything the club does.

Seem a bit dramatic? Well, let’s consider the latest financials and break things down.

We Have a Reported Chris Jones Asking Price

Heading into the 2024 NFL offseason, the main question facing the Chiefs was whether to retain the services of Sneed or Jones. And while we don’t have any definitive answers just yet, there has been some progress on both fronts.

In regard to the former man, he seems destined to receive a franchise tag. That means he’ll be under contract for the 2024 campaign at a cost of just under $20 million, but that’s not the end of the conversation. There’s still time to work out a longer-term deal, but a trade could also be on the cards.

As for Jones, things are a bit murkier. Since each club only gets one franchise tag, the Chiefs can’t use that to keep him around. That means KC will either have to pay a sizable price to extend his contract or accept that the pass rusher will be leaving town.

But what will the defensive lineman actually cost? Well, if we take ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler at his word, somewhere around $28 million should be enough.

“Will Chris Jones escape Kansas City? Most around the league do not expect it, but they also don’t expect the talented free agent defensive tackle to take a discount. The feeling is if Kansas City can reach the range of $27 million to $28 million per year, that should help close the deal,” Fowler wrote in an ESPN notebook shared with Dan Graziano.

Is that a slight hometown discount? Maybe, but it’s certainly not a bargain for the Chiefs.

A Mahomes Contract Restructure Seems to Be Looming

So, now that we’ve looked at the money that’s (theoretically) required for Sneed and Jones, let’s look at the Chiefs’ larger salary cap situation. At the risk of being reductionist, the numbers simply don’t work.

With Sneed’s franchise tag on the books, KC is pushing up against the salary ceiling. Based on Over the Cap’s numbers, general manager Brett Veach only has about $3.5 million left to work with. If you consider effective cap space, which estimates the cost of signing this year’s draft class and filling out the roster, the Chiefs are within $1 million of the cap.

Even if Sneed signed a long-term deal, lowering his annual cap hit, the defending champs still don’t have much wiggle room. The same can be said if they prioritize Jones; moving the corner would save just under $20 million, and signing the star pass rusher would put that money back on the books and then some.

That cost also comes before bringing in any external free agents. Sure, you can draft a wide receiver, but wouldn’t you want to add an established name to a position group that consists of Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson and Kadarius Toney? And what about replacing someone like Nick Allegretti, who could leave Arrowhead in search of a starting job? As the 2023 campaign showed, depth is important even with a major ace under center.

And on the subject of Mahomes, it looks like he’ll be the answer to the Chiefs’ problems yet again. While contract restructures can be a bit of a mystery—it sometimes feels like teams can infinitely manufacture cap space as needed—the quarterback’s deal does provide some flexibility.

“One of the best assets the Chiefs have at their disposal for these moves is Mahomes’ contract, which has eight years left on it and affords them the perpetual ability to convert salary to bonuses and clear cap room,” ESPN’s Dan Graziano wrote in February. “If the Chiefs did a full restructure on his 2024 compensation—converting all but the required $1.21 million veteran minimum salary to a signing bonus and also converting his $34.9 million roster bonus to a signing bonus—they’d reduce his 2024 cap number from its current $58.6 million to around $23 million.”

While some details have changed since he wrote that explanation—Sneed has been franchise tagged and proven performance escalators chewed up a bit of additional cap space—the underlying principle remains. If the Chiefs need financial flexibility, the biggest lever to pull comes from Mahomes.

Again, it remains to be seen where that potential cash gets spent. Is it better to push all in and try to fit both Jones and Sneed? Should Veach keep Jones and then chase a free agent receiver? Maybe there’s a lineman to target with an eye toward keeping Mahomes upright?

That falls to Veach and his staff.

But wherever that money gets allocated, No. 15 will play a key role in saving the financial day for Kansas City and giving the dynasty the best possible chance to keep rolling. Based on his time in Kansas City, that’s a fitting way for this spring to go.

He usually saves the day on the field, so why not be an offseason savior, too?