Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick Are Proving the Harsh Reality of NFL Life

After two coaches lost their jobs on “Black Monday,” it seemed like we were headed for a relatively quiet offseason, at least when it came to personnel turnover. The coaching carousel, however, kept on spinning. Mike Vrabel got the ax on Tuesday, and Seattle Seahawks head bench boss Pete Carroll joined him on Wednesday afternoon. The club confirmed that he’d no longer be leading the team from the sidelines, although he’d remain with the organization as an adviser.

That move, to put things mildly, was unexpected. Adam Schefter called it a “shocker.” Tom Pelissero preferred the label of “bombshell.” The Seahawks had finished over .500 and, despite finishing outside of the playoff picture, didn’t look that bad. Was there work to be done? Sure, but a coaching change didn’t seem to be in the cards.

But Carroll’s fate, combined with Bill Belichick’s presence at least somewhat near the chopping block, underscores a fundamental reality of NFL coaching: You’re safe until the moment you aren’t.

Let’s focus on those latter two men, with the caveat that the hoodie-wearing head coach hasn’t lost his job yet, and he might not get the ax at all this offseason. Carroll and Belichick have a great deal in common, at least in terms of their work. They’re both NFL veterans, and they both sit above .500 in terms of all-time record. They’ve also led their respective teams to championships, although there’s quite a disparity in the number of rings, and have a hand in their club’s front office.

And there’s also the theme of longevity. Belichick took charge of the Pats in 2000, while Carroll joined the Seahawks in 2010. Again, the men differ in terms of counting numbers, but the underlying connection exists.

But for those similarities, the two head coaches go about their business in different ways. Belichick, as anyone who’s ever watched one of his press conferences can confirm, can be rough around the edges. He’s apparently willing to uncork some one-liners behind the scenes, but he’s largely viewed as an unsentimental leader who will replace anyone as required. As Danny Amendola said, the Patriots worked for Belichick but played for Tom Brady.

Carroll, on the other hand, is seen as one of the NFL’s nice guys. In 2014, for example, Jim Trotter penned a Sports Illustrated piece headlined, “The Power of Positive Coaching.” The subtitle noted how the coach had proven you could win with a smile.

For a more contemporary example, consider Matt Calkins’ 2023 Seattle Times story focusing on Carroll’s ability to maintain relationships with former players.

“I am proud of that. I’m proud that they see where we’re coming from, and they can tell what we’re all about,” the head coach explained when asked about those connections. “Things happen and you have to deal with them and they’re not always what you want. The realities and the reality checks that you undertake along the way, it’s just hard sometimes. You don’t see eye-to-eye on everything, but that doesn’t mean that you don’t care, it doesn’t mean that you won’t be there for them when they come back around either.”

Calkins also cited how Frank Clark, Bobby Wagner and Marshawn Lynch returned to Seattle. Richard Sherman, for all of his differences with the head coach, visits team practices and had Carroll on his podcast.

But that brings us back to one ultimate similarity: the lack of job security.

You can be a nice guy or a bit grumpier. You can lift the Lombardi Trophy, successfully coach living legends, build all sorts of personal connections and spend more than a decade in charge. You can be the franchise’s all-time wins leader. Ultimately, though, your seat is going to heat up. At some point, the ax will fall, and it probably won’t seem fair.

To focus on Carroll, since he’s now the one without a head coaching gig, he only had three losing seasons in the Pacific Northwest. Two of those came during his first two years on the job. He navigated moving on from Russell Wilson (a move that seems wise in hindsight) and kept the club afloat with Geno Smith under center. As Calkins’ piece explained, he was a unifying thread keeping the Seahawks connected.

Ultimately, that didn’t matter. When a team decides to make a change, whether it’s after a period of strife or a brief hiccup, the head coach is usually the one paying the price.

Carroll has reached that point; Belichick is getting closer to the edge than it ever seemed like he would.

That, for all of the fame and fortune, is the cold hard truth of coaching.